096
FXUS61 KALY 201104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
704 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy morning fog, then dry conditions for eastern New
York today and mostly to partly cloudy skies. For western New
England, chances of showers for Saturday morning before dry
conditions returns for the rest of this weekend through Tuesday.
Chances of showers increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with
unsettled weather conditions for mid week. Temperatures become
seasonable today and continues for next week, with a few locations
seeing cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:00 AM EDT...Minor update to hourly temperatures as
surface observations from ASOS and NYS Mesonet data shows
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees cooler with temperatures in the 40s
and low 50s this morning. Updated fog grids as well for the next
1 to 3 hours. Otherwise the current forecast is doing well and
on track for this morning. More details below in previous
discussion.

Previous Discussion...Patchy fog has been observed on nighttime
microphysics and night fog satellite imagery this morning in
valley locations. Use extra caution while traveling this morning
as visibility can be quickly reduced in fog. Current surface
temperatures range in the low to upper 50s across eastern New
York and western New England. Fog diminishes as daylight
increases this morning and a dry morning is in store with some
high cirrus clouds.

For this afternoon and evening, dry conditions are in store as
surface high pressure continues while a surface low pressure system
still lingers off the Atlantic Coast of MA/RI. Probability of
precipitation has decreased through tonight by latest high
resolution model guidance and NBM deterministic model guidance to
less than 15 percent. So a mix of sun and clouds are in store for
today. High temperatures this afternoon are forecasted to be in the
70s and low 80s. For tonight, skies should be clearing to allow for
fog to develop overnight. Low temperatures cool into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low pressure system off the Atlantic coast of MA/RI
will help contribute to keep eastern NY and western New England
dry as we are positioned in-between two low pressure systems,
one to our west and one to our east. We should remain dry that`s
favored by latest high resolution forecast model guidance over
us. A cold front from the north brings cooler, seasonable
temperatures for this weekend. While skies Saturday and Sunday
will be a mix of sun and clouds, dry conditions continue. Winds
during the morning hours remain light and variable, and with
radiational cooling, valley fog could develop each morning this
weekend. Seasonable temperatures are in store for this weekend.
High temperatures Saturday are forecasted to be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Low temperatures for Sunday morning are forecasted
in the upper 40s to low 50s. We could see high temperatures on
Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our approximately 2 week stretch of dry and benign weather comes to
end during the upcoming long term as broad troughing develops across
the Northeast with potential for even a cut-off low to form towards
the end of next week. As a result of this pattern shift, multiple
days will feature chances for rainfall by the middle to end of next
week. With the month-to-date September precipitation for much of
eastern NY and western New England only around or under 0.50", the
expected wetter pattern will bring beneficial rainfall as soils have
become quite dry. Temperatures will also trend relatively cooler but
will be quite seasonable for late September standards in response to
upcoming troughing. More details below.

We start off the period Monday into Tuesday with broad ridging aloft
centered over the TN/Ohio Valley extending into the Northeast with a
strong sfc high centered over eastern Quebec. This will maintain dry
and pleasant yet relatively cooler conditions Monday into most of
Tuesday. However, Tuesday into Wednesday, we note the start of our
pattern shift as broad troughing from the Upper Plains amplifies and
slides eastward, breaking down the downstream ridge. While there are
differences on the exact timing and amplitude of the incoming
trough, ensemble clusters from DESI show strong agreement for
troughing to ensue across the eastern CONUS which increasing
confidence for multiple chances for rainfall Wednesday through the
end of the work week. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance also suggests
that strong ridging becomes established over the West CONUS with an
omega block pattern potentially developing. Such a pattern upstream
may also support troughing over the Eastern CONUS transitioning into
a cut-off low towards the end of the work week as northern and
southern stream energy within our split flow potentially phase. We
will continue to monitor how the pattern evolves but the main
takeaway is that we can expect our sensible weather to become
wetter/unsettled, seasonably cool, and cloudier starting Tuesday
night into Wednesday and lasting through the end of the work week.
We thus have widespread chance POPs in place through this period.
Not enough confidence on exact shower coverage, timing, or duration
to include likely POPs at this time. Temperatures should rise into
the mid-upper 60s to low 70s each day with overnight lows dropping
into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR conditions early this morning should improve and return to
VFR at all terminals by 12-14 UTC. VFR conditions prevail
through the day with just some diurnally driven stratus clouds
at 4-6kft developing by 16 - 17 UTC as we reach out convective
temperature. Some isolated showers are not completely ruled out
this afternoon but given uncertainty on exact location, only
did not include VCSH. VFR conditions through 00- 03 UTC at all
terminals but then MVFR stratus clouds look to redevelop by or
shortly after 03 UTC for POU, PSF and GFL.

Winds become east-northeast reaching 5-8 kt with gusts up to
15kts by 14 - 16 UTC at all terminals. Winds turn light and
variable by 23 - 01 UTC.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale