741
FXUS61 KALY 182025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
425 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-June heat wave is officially underway with the
anticipation of today`s preliminary round of dangerous, near-record
heat and elevated humidity to continue through at least Thursday,
especially at lower elevations. While much of the region will remain
dry during this period, each day will hold isolated to scattered
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A respite from ugly heat will
come in time for the weekend with a cold front set to pass through
the region Friday. Temperatures will then return to seasonably warm
levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
**Heat Advisories are now in effect across all of eastern New
 York and western New England through 8 PM Thursday**

Our mid-June heat wave officially kicked into high gear today as
temperatures currently sit well within the mid/upper 80s to low
90s across much of the area. The exceptions to this are pockets
of low to mid 80s in higher terrain regions of the Southwest
Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills where isolated showers have
cooled things off a bit. However, conditions are likely still
fairly uncomfortable in these areas due to dew points in the
upper 60s to low 70s driving apparent temperatures into the 90s.

KENX radar and MRMS lightning data indicate a couple of very
localized, non-severe thunderstorms within the Eastern
Catskills and Upper Hudson Valley courtesy of upper energy in
the form of a shortwave traversing along the international
border just to our north and west and moderate instability
contributing to sufficient buoyancy to overcome the overall
lack of forcing. These storms have been relatively short-lived,
again due to lack of forcing and the additional lack of shear,
but moderate to locally heavy downpours have been noted as a
resultant of these storms.

Throughout the night tonight, the current 594 dam closed high
currently spanning a large portion of the East Coast including
much of eastern New York and western New England, will look to
amplify slightly as it tracks further north into the Northeast.
With the loss of daytime heating, any showers and thunderstorms
that have developed this afternoon will quickly die off
yielding a dry but muggy night with low temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of
 eastern New York and western New England**

By tomorrow morning, the upper high looks to become centered
over the Mid-Atlantic at about 597 dam. The amplification,
though modest, will ensure 850 mb temperatures increasing to
near 20 C/km in most valley areas and about 18 C/km at higher
elevations. With forecast soundings indicating mixing up to 900
to 850 mb and the anomalously high upper-level ridging in
place, high temperatures tomorrow will fair a few degrees warmer
than today with mid/upper 80s anticipated above 1000 ft and mid
to possibly upper 90s in valley areas. Dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will make for dangerous heat indices of up to 95
degrees in mountainous areas and 95 to 104 degrees at lower
elevations. Isolated heat index values of 105 degrees are
possible in the Hudson Valley, but the lack of coverage,
anticipated brevity of such conditions, and overall high
confidence in remaining largely below 105 degree apparent
temperatures warranted the continuation of the Heat Advisory
instead of an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning. That`s not
to say that this couldn`t change during the overnight period
should new sources of guidance indicate a more widespread,
longer duration of heat indices of 105 degrees or greater.
However, with models having come to a strong consensus in
temperatures remaining largely within the mid 90s with pockets
of upper 90s in the Hudson Valley where these indices would be
more common, it is looking less and less likely that such a
product would be needed. It is important to note that the
conditions forecast for tomorrow, though not meeting Excessive
Heat criteria, are still incredibly dangerous if caution is not
heeded. Drink plenty of water, limit time outdoors, and
familiarize yourself with the signs and symptoms of heat
illness.

With dominating high pressure, conditions tomorrow will
primarily be dry, though some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as upper energy pulses about the
northwestern periphery of the high. At this time, no severe
thunderstorms are expected. Low temperatures tomorrow night will
be similar to tonight with upper 60s to low 70s across the
region.

Thursday`s conditions will be fairly similar to tomorrow with
the strength of the upper high remaining relatively stagnant.
High temperatures will once again range from the mid/upper 80s
to low/mid 90s with pockets of low 80s above 1500 ft. Heat index
values will reach the low to mid 90s in high elevations with 95
to 104 degrees in valley areas. Therefore, the Heat Advisory
will be allowed to persist through Thursday evening. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could become severe, are possible once again Thursday due to a
surface trough tracking through the region. At this time, wind
looks to be the primary threat with any severe storms that
arise. Once daytime heating is lost Thursday night, showers and
thunderstorms will taper off to yield another night of mid/upper
60s to low 70s.

Though Friday will be warmer than typical mid-June standards, we
will finally begin to get a respite to oppressive heat thanks to
a surface cold front tracking through the region from northwest
to southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the region as a result of this boundary progression.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s with
pockets of low 90s in the lower Mid Hudson Valley.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with a frontal boundary stalling
near the Pennsylvania and New York border with isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms ending mainly south of Interstate
90. High pressure will be building in from southern Quebec and
northern New England with a brief period of slightly cooler and
drier weather to open the weekend.  Lows will fall into the 50s to
around 60F over the higher terrain Friday night with mid and upper
60s in the valleys.  The frontal boundary will lift back north as a
warm front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  Some scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary
during the afternoon.  Max temps will will run a little above normal
with 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 80s
in the valleys.  The mid and upper level flow goes from zonal to
southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of mid and upper
level trough approaching from southern Ontario and the Great Lakes
Region.  The forecast area returns to a warm sector and the air mass
become more humid and unstable.  Lows Saturday night will be muggy
in the 60s with a few upper 50s over the mountains.

Sunday into Monday...A prefrontal trough may focus some bands or
clusters of strong thunderstorms to close the weekend. The better low
to mid level height falls and the cold front don`t move across the
region until Sunday night into Monday.  PWATS will run above normal,
so some locally heavy rain may occur Sunday night into Monday.  We
kept PoPs in the likely to high chance range to close the weekend
and open next week.  Highs Monday may get into the mid 80s to around
90F in the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mtns.  Lows
Sunday night will be still sticky in the 60s to around 70F.  The
clouds and pcpn may keep may temps down a bit on Monday with 70s to
lower/mid 80s.  Some places in the Adirondacks may hold in the 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area in
the wake of the cold front with a brief respite potentially of
slightly drier and pleasant early summer weather.  Lows fall into
the 50s to around 60F.  Max temps will return slightly above normal
for Tuesday.  CPCs Day 8 to 14 outlook for the last week of June
into early July is calling for above normal temps and near normal
pcpn across eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Just some diurnally drive
FEW-SCT cumulus clouds and high level cirrus clouds will drift
through. There is a low probability (~20 percent) of a brief
SHRA/TSRA, but coverage is likely to be too sparse to mention in
TAFs. Given sufficient clearing and winds decoupling, patchy
radiation fog may develop at KGFL overnight. Will mention MVFR vsby
for now starting at 08Z, with periods of brief IFR possible through
around 11z. Other sites should remain VFR.

Winds will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt, weakening to around 6
kt or less tonight. Winds on Wednesday will be south-southwest
around 5-10 kt again.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday, June 18:
Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)

Wednesday, June 19:
Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20:
Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21:
Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV
CLIMATE...Rathbun