Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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357 FXUS61 KALY 222029 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 429 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled period of weather is expected through tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity on Thursday, but some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially along the Interstate 84 corridor. Dry weather returns for Friday, before unsettled weather returns for the first half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 425 PM Update: A very warm afternoon is in progress with scattered cumulus clouds across the area. A pre-frontal trough has sparked scattered showers and thunderstorms west of the area, mainly across Central and Western NY. As this trough moves eastward towards Eastern NY, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as we approach evening. The best dynamics for severe thunderstorms will be west of the area, especially since by the time these showers and storms reach the vicinity of the Capital Region and Hudson Valley, it will be approaching or after sunset with waning instability. Shear is lacking as well. That being said, cannot rule out a few stronger storms with gusty winds due to steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air. Most of Eastern NY remains in a "Marginal Risk" for Severe Thunderstorms in SPC`s Day 1 Outlook. While the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will diminish as the night progresses, there will still be some lingering showers around overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 60s. By daybreak Thursday, the cold front will be situated just south of the Capital Region and through the Hudson Valley and it will be slowly pushing to the southeast. Morning and early afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and just ahead of the front especially south of the Capital Region. Modest instability (greater than 1500 J/kg) and more favorable shear (greater than 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear) will result in some of these thunderstorms becoming strong to severe. The best chance for this will be further ahead of the front across our far southeastern areas across the mid-Hudson Valley to northwestern Connecticut. Locally damaging winds and/or hail will be possible in these storms. Elsewhere, a general drying trend will be present with partly sunny skies. Highs Thursday will range from the 70s in the high terrain areas to mid to upper 80s along the I-84 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 425 PM Update: Cannot rule out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms early in the evening Thursday across the mid-Hudson Valley to northwestern Connecticut, but otherwise dry conditions are expected Thursday night with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to near 60. Friday will be a mainly sunny day as high pressure will be in control. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but with lower dewpoints (mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s), it will feel a lot more comfortable outside. The dry weather continues Friday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 425 PM Update: An upper level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to northeast on Saturday as a surface warm front also approaches. Some showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The associated cold front looks to cross the region on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds overhead. This should result in a drier day, but a few showers could still occur along the front. Highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s along the Hudson Valley and the 70s to around 80 elsewhere. A complex upper level pattern looks to set up for early next week with multiple pieces of upper-level energy rotating around one another. Eventually, an upper level trough or upper level low looks to form over the region. Another surface low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes and brings additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread than over the weekend. The extra clouds and greater coverage of precipitation may hold temperatures into the 60s and 70s both days. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z/Thu...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening. However, some weakening showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the area this evening, which may produce brief MVFR restrictions. Confidence in thunder is rather low, but highest at KALB and therefore added a two hour TEMPO group for thunder there from 02Z-04Z. Embedded thunder is possible at KGFL, KPOU, and/or KPSF, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. In the wake of these showers, some partial clearing may take place and result in some patchy fog late tonight. A return to VFR conditions is expected by mid- morning Thursday and into the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BJG