085
FXUS61 KALY 181731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues today with increasing
clouds as a weather system moves along the Atlantic Coast. This
weather system could bring chances of rain showers into
Thursday. Friday could see some lingering showers in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills region, otherwise dry
conditions are in store into this weekend through early next
week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Thin high clouds spreading north and will filter the sun through
the afternoon. The thickest high clouds will be in southern
areas. Light winds and filtered sunshine will limit mixing
potential just a bit more than the past few days. Highs well
into the 70s to lower 80s. Just minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Chances of precipitation across the Mid-Hudson Valley and
Litchfield Hills regions tonight into tomorrow morning continue
to see a drying trend with latest high resolution model
guidance, so decreased probabilities of precipitation through
tomorrow morning to less than 15 percent. For tonight into
tomorrow morning, patchy fog could develop across the Mohawk
Valley and the western Adirondacks. Lows tonight into tomorrow
morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As our weather system continues to move into our area for Thursday,
mostly cloudy skies continue and probability for rain shower
activity is primarily for the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills
for Thursday. Locations north of Albany are favored by latest high
resolution model guidance to remain dry through this timeframe as
the center of the coastal low pressure system remains off the coast
and will stay to the south of us, bringing chances of precipitation
for locations south and east of Albany Thursday night into Friday.
Forecast confidence is high for locations north of Albany to remain
dry through this timeframe as probabilities for accumulating
rainfall are less than 15% per latest National Blend of Models 4.2
data (NBM).

The low pressure system continues into Friday with chances of
precipitation (of at least a trace) between 15 and 30 percent for
locations south and east of Albany. Locations north and west
continue to see dry conditions but mostly cloudy skies Friday. While
not everyone will see a shower on Friday, at this forecast time the
primary location for a rain shower Friday afternoon and evening is
across the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills into parts of
the Berkshires.


High temperatures on Thursday are forecasted to be in the upper 70s
to low 80s. For Friday, highs in the low to upper 70s. Low
temperatures continue to be in the upper 50s to low 60s across
eastern New York and western New England for this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our stretch of dry and rather tranquil weather continue this weekend
with temperatures trending towards seasonable fall levels just in
time to welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Our coastal
disturbance that has meandered off the coast the past few days
continues to slowly drift off the New England coast as a strong area
of high pressure from Quebec builds southward. The incoming high
will act to steer the coastal low further out to sea as a cold front
sinks southward along its leading edge. Given lackluster moisture
and a weak thermal gradient, we maintained a generally dry forecast
for Saturday outside of some slight chance POPs near the I-84
corridor where the coastal low may still support some isolated
showers as it departs. Should moisture and/or forcing along the
incoming cold front increase, we may introduce some increased POPs
for the region on Saturday in future updates. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temperatures expected on Saturday ahead of the front under
partly cloudy skies.

Cooler, breezy, and dry Sunday into Monday as our Canadian high
builds over the Northeast at the sfc while mid-level ridging from
the Midwest expands eastward. North to northeasterly winds usher in
a cooler, fall-like air mass as well with daytime highs in the upper
60s to low 70s and cool overnight lows dropping into the 40s to
around 50 in valley areas.

A warm front attendant to a broad rather flat shortwave trough
displaced well to our west in the Central Plains tracks through the
Northeast on Tuesday; however, between the low moisture and weak
overall forcing, we did not included POPs at this time but will
continue to evaluate and adjust POPs as necessary. Otherwise,
Tuesday looks to trend slightly cooler as our Canadian becomes
wedged over eastern New England, enhancing the easterly fetch off
the Atlantic.

Guidance continues to point to the middle of next week as our next
chance for more widespread rain. A trough from the Midwest tracks
eastward and amplifies, potentially inducing a secondary sfc low
along the leading edge of its low-level jet. Such a feature could
help focus moisture and forcing into a more organized area of rain.
Will continue to monitor over the coming days. This would be
beneficial rain after over two weeks without widespread rainfall.
See weather.gov/media/aly/climate/dryspells.pdf for a list of
Albany`s dry spells (i.e at least 14 consecutive days without
measurable rainfall).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thu...VFR conditions are expected for much of the
upcoming TAF period as a low pressure system to the south
spreads bkn-ovc high clouds across the TAF sites. The exception
would be for any patchy fog development tonight. The high cloud
deck may be thick enough to prevent fog formation at most sites.
KGFL may be most favored for fog as cloud thickness and
coverage will be lower compared to elsewhere and is more
climatologically favored. As a result, will introduce reduced
vsbys at just KGFL with this update and keep all other sites VFR
for now. Enough dry air in the low levels should prevent any
precipitation through 18z/Thu.

Light and variable wind at 5 kt or less will continue through
this afternoon before trending calm tonight. Wind will increase
to 5 to 10 kt out of the north to northeast Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...NAS/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Rathbun