259
FXUS61 KALY 220600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly sunny and pleasant end to the weekend before clouds
increase tomorrow into Tuesday with cooling temperatures. Then,
our long stretch of dry weather ends by the middle of the workweek
as a disturbance from the Midwest directs periods of rain into
the region Tuesday night through Thursday. Unsettled conditions
may continue into Friday but the forecast remains uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

A bit of a challenging cloud and temperatures forecast tonight.
Latest GOES16 night fog channel shows some debris cirrus clouds
spilling into the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, and
areas east from Central NY leftover from yesterday`s convection.
It also shows with some mid-level clouds in western New England
rotating inland from our exiting coastal low. In between, radiational
cooling has led to pockets of low-level stratus clouds. Where
skies remain mainly clear temperatures have cooled into the mid
to upper 50s with even upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks.
Where we have stratus or mid-level clouds, temperatures are a
bit warmer in the upper 50s. While fog has yet to develop, with
dew point depressions only 3 to 8 degrees, patchy fog may
develop where skies remain clear towards the pre-dawn hours.
Overnight lows expected to drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Patchy early stratus clouds/fog will give way to clearing this
morning with sunshine mixing with some diurnally driven cumulus
clouds midday into the afternoon as we reach our convective
temperature. Our coastal low off Cape Cod will finally exit out
to sea with high pressure centered in eastern Quebec building
into northern New England. Upper level ridging from western
NY/PA will also slide eastward resulting in subsidence over
eastern NY and western New England. This will effectively
keep our region dry for an 11th straight day (outside of some
innocuous isolated showers in the Upper Hudson Valley and
southern/western Adirondacks last week) and maintain our stretch
of very pleasant weather for this first day of autumn. Easterly
winds sustained 5-8kts will advect in a slightly cooler air
mass that has spread into northern New England; however, a
rather dry atmospheric column will support deep boundary layer
mixing up to 850hPa which, when combined with the insolation,
will allow high temperatures to reach into the low to mid 70s
with upper 60s in the higher terrain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level cooling and drying continues from the east, pushing
west and south, while upper energy and moisture affecting
western NY/PA weakens, dries up and lifts north into Canada.
Some question about how much cloud cover from convective debris
tracks into our region, but the most cloud cover should be in
western areas. Some cloud cover could form where the moisture in
western NY/PA converges with the drier air in eastern NY but
where that boundary sets up is in question.

There should be enough sun to help temperatures reach the upper
60s to lower 70s with a few mid 70s in the Hudson Valley and
western Mohawk Valley and a few mid 60s higher terrain.

A slow and gradual increase in cloud cover as another upper
impulse and surge of moisture and low level forcing slowly
builds east. The low level cooler and drier air remains somewhat
anchored over our region but rain should hold off until later
Monday night and Tuesday and mainly just scattered showers
from the Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the
southwestern Adirondacks.

Highs Monday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Tuesday in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex upper pattern evolution Wednesday through Saturday.
Upper energy weakens and lifts north Wednesday, then phases with
northern stream energy dropping south, to develop a closed low
that drops through the northeast U.S. Thursday and Friday. So,
showers likely with some isolated thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

With the closed upper low slow to drop south and offshore New
England, scattered showers each day through Thursday with more
isolated showers Friday. Potentially dry by Saturday. Still,
unsettled weather most of the week, and potential for heavy
rain seems low as deeper more tropical moisture will be lacking
but any measurable rain, even light, will help alleviate the
dry conditions we have had lately.

Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 60s with some 50s in higher
terrain. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to around 70 with around
60 higher elevations. Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight
as enhanced mid-level strato-cu coverage remains to the east over
New England associated with a surface low near Cape Cod. The western
edge of these clouds remains near GFL/PSF, with clearer skies to the
west aside from lingering convective debris pushing east into the
Hudson Valley from Central NY. All told, mixed low and mid-level
clouds are expected through tonight, with a conditional threat for
radiation fog if clearer skies persist, most likely at GFL/POU and
possibly also at PSF. Few-sct strato-cu at 3-5 kft will develop at
all terminals after 12-15Z Sun, before coverage of cirrus at 25 kft
begins to increase late in the period, after 00Z Mon, as a frontal
system approaches from the west.

Calm to light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the
northeast to east at 4-8 kt after 12-15Z Sun, turning out of the
east to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Speeds
decrease to 5 kt or less after 00-03Z Mon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard