590
FXUS61 KALY 262357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
757 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds are expected tonight with some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in after
midnight. The Memorial Day holiday will be met with a widespread
soaking rain and breezy winds courtesy of a strong low pressure
system tracking near the region. Shower chances will continue
through much of the week with an upper level low remaining over the
region. Conditions then look to dry out in time for the end of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE as of 710 pm EDT....A thermal trough continues to be
across upstate NY into western New England. This boundary is
along or near the I-90 corridor. Mainly some cumulus have
developed but a few showers have developed over the Berkshires.
We kept some isolated showers in over the Berkshires, southern
VT, mid Hudson Valley,  northern Taconics and the eastern
Catskills prior to midnight. We retooled the sky cover and
backed the PoPs off until the early to mid morning hours, as the
forcing increases ahead the true warm front for increasing
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms. It will be a mild
night with lows in the 50s to lower and spotty mid 60s with
increasing humidity levels.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0438 pm EDT]...Visible satellite imagery
shows widespread fair weather cumulus across eastern New York
and western New England this afternoon as high pressure
dominates the region. Plenty of sunshine despite the clouds has
helped temperatures into the mid/upper 70s to low 80s this
afternoon. A weak surface boundary currently sits south of the
region where a few pinhead showers have popped up in the last
couple of hours. However, none of these showers have quite made
it into the bounds of our CWA just yet. Latest CAMs continue to
indicate widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
south of Albany this afternoon and into this evening as the
boundary shifts slightly further north. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates about 1000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE throughout the region
with the highest values south of Albany. Despite instability,
shear values remain relatively low (20-25 kt), so any convection
that develops this afternoon is unfavored to become severe.
Additionally, with little in the way of forcing and plenty of
mid-level dry air present, precipitation resulting from these
showers and thunderstorms should generally be light outside of a
brief, locally heavy downpour.

With the loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms
should taper off shortly after sunset, yielding a brief dry
period for a good portion of the overnight. However, clouds will
be on the increase ahead of a deepening cyclone that will
inflict widespread rain, moderate to possibly heavy at times,
beginning tomorrow morning. While some timing discrepancies
still exist, general consensus points to an onset time west of
the Hudson by about 10-12z tomorrow morning. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By tonight, the shortwave ridge currently spanning the region
will be shifting east as upper-level troughing advances from the
west ahead of a deepening cyclone tracking into the western
Great Lakes. Cyclonic vorticity advection and southwesterly flow
aloft increases tomorrow morning as the leading edge of the
upper trough crosses into New York. A band of light showers
will cross into areas west of the Hudson Valley by 10-12z
tomorrow morning as the warm front of the system`s surface low
begins to lift northward. Warm air advection will aid in the
development of a heavier rain band by mid-morning as winds start
to become breezy with the strengthening pressure gradient from
the deepening low now flirting with the US/Canada border in the
northern Great Lakes.

Additional batches of moderate to heavy rain come in the
afternoon as large scale ascent increases with the continually
deepening low. With southerly flow in place at the surface,
upslope enhancement will lead to heavier downpours in the
Eastern Catskills and Southwest Adirondacks. Heavier, embedded
convective downpours are also possible elsewhere due to modest
instability present within the environment. Some rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out, but widespread thunderstorms are
not expected. Winds will increase throughout the day with the
increasing pressure gradient across the area. Gusts ranging from
15-25 kt are likely with locally stronger gusts possible with
any embedded thunderstorms that develop.

Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected to persist from mid
to late morning Monday through Monday afternoon before
gradually slowing and tapering to scattered showers by Monday
evening into Monday night. QPF through Monday night is likely to
range from 0.5" to 1.5" with locally higher amounts closer to
2" in the Eastern Catskills and Southwest Adirondacks. Ponding
of water, urban/poor drainage flooding is possible throughout
much of the area with isolated flash flooding being possible in
the Eastern Catskills. High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler
than the last few days with mid/upper 60s to low 70s expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

Upper troughing remains over the region Monday night into
Tuesday with the upper low and associated surface low remaining
overhead. Additional showers will be possible through Tuesday
night with the system`s cold front tracking through the region
Tuesday and upper energy pulsing through the mean flow into
Tuesday night. However, showers will be more scattered and
lighter in nature and will likely be more concentrated north of
Albany and west of the Hudson River. Some thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon with some modest instability present
across the region. Highs Tuesday will be warmer than Monday with
clouds beginning to decrease as showers decrease in coverage,
yielding mid/upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Tuesday night will
then fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We remain under cyclonic flow for a good portion of next week
with the trough associated with the upper-low remaining
situated across eastern New York and western New England. As
such, Wednesday will be a cloudy day with chances for showers
across much of the region. There are some discrepancies in the
guidance as to the exact spatial coverage and duration of
showers due to timing differences in the exit of the upper-low
and the track of an embedded shortwave that will rotate about
its southern periphery, but general consistency points to the
greatest coverage Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Some
weak instability looks to be present mainly south of Albany so
some thunderstorms will also be possible especially Wednesday
afternoon.

Showers look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning
before tapering off Thursday afternoon as dry air is ushered in
on the back side of the upper-trough. Dry conditions will then
be in place Thursday night through the remainder of the period
as surface high pressure and an upper-level ridge build in from
the west.

High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 50s in the
Southwest Adirondacks to low/mid 70s in the Hudson Valley. We
cool down a bit Thursday with highs anticipated to be in the
upper 50s to near 70. For the end of the week and into the
weekend, we will see a bit of a warming trend with highs Friday
reaching a few degrees warmer than Thursday and rising to the
upper 60s/low 70s to mid/upper 70s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak sfc trough over upstate NY and west-central New England
will bring a few showers close to KPSF early tonight, but
overall expecting VFR conditions prior to midnight at
KALB/KGFL, but we could see some lower stratus move into
KPOU/KPSF prior to 06Z/MON. The stratus will be ahead of a warm
front that will bring some lowering clouds for the rest of the
TAF sites prior to 12Z/MON. Expect conditions to lower to MVFR
cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL at KPSF/KPOU between 03Z-06Z/MON, and even
IFR stratus is likely to get into KPOU by 06Z/MON. Expect MVFR
cigs to reach KALB-KGFL between 06Z-12Z/MON. We did not bring
IFR cigs into KPSF until 10Z/MON with the light rain/showers.
Some adjustments may be needed later.

The warm front will approach 10Z-14Z/MON with a period of
rainfall. Expect widespread low MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys at the TAF
sites. Some improvement to widespread MVFR and even VFR
conditions are expected in the 17Z-20Z/MON time frame. However,
that will be short-lived, as another batch of heavier showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and wave will impact
KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL between 19Z/MON and 23Z/MON. We used PROB30
groups to bring in the thunderstorms/showers with IFR/low MVFR
conditions.

The winds will be east to southeast at less than 7 KT early
tonight, but then will increase to 5-10 KT towards daybreak. The
southeast to south winds will increase to 10-18 KT with gusts in
the 20-30 KT range in the late morning through the afternoon.
Some stronger gusts may occur with any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula