602
FXUS61 KALY 291754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and mostly dry weather will persist this afternoon
especially north of the mid Hudson Valley. A disturbance passing to
the south will bring rain showers south of I-90, and most likely
along the I-84 corridor. Cooler temperatures behind the cold frontal
passage persist through Thursday night, before a warming trend
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...as of 153 PM EDT...A weak secondary cold front
continues to move across southern NY and west-central New
England. A short-wave is moving eastern OH and western PA. The
latest CAMs trends continue to depict isolated to widely
scattered pop-up shower or a stray thunderstorm this afternoon
in the mid Hudson Valley, but until the short- wave arrives the
day should be mainly dry with fair weather cumulus north of
Interstate 90. A few light showers have popped up on the radar.
The SBCAPEs are at or around 500 J/kg on the latest SPC RAP
Mesoanalysis. PWATS are 0.70-0.90".

The 12Z KALY sounding is drier with a PWAT down to 0.86" and
the profile is drier/more stable than yesterday with only 190
J/kg of MUCAPE. We retooled the PoPs and weather and tried to
keep any isolated or scattered threat for the mid to late
afternoon and into tonight from the mid Hudson Valley. West to
northwest winds will increase 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30
mph. Humidity levels will be comfortable and max temps will be
seasonable with 60s to lower/mid 70s.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0655 EDT]...As an initial upper shortwave is
exiting eastward into New England while a second impulse digs
over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through tonight. As
this second shortwave passes to the south, a region of rain
showers will spread from west to east, primarily to the south of
I-90 and most likely along the I-84 corridor. Sufficient
instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) will allow for embedded
thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. While storms may
result in a brief heavy downpour, no severe weather is expected.
North of I-90 and farther from the synoptic forcing for ascent,
showers will be much more isolated or altogether absent, while
skies trend clearer through the evening and overnight.

Enhanced cloud cover early this morning will allow for a mild
start to the day, but cooler air aloft within upper troughing
with keep temperatures near to slightly below normal, reaching
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and
upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. A surface wind shift
boundary will sink across the region overnight tonight, with
developing cold advection in northerly flow allowing for cooler
temperatures as lows fall to the upper 30s to low 40s in high
terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis passes overhead on Thursday while cold
advection on low-level northerly flow keeps temperatures
slightly below normal, rising to afternoon highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to low 70s at lower
elevations. Rain showers associated with surface troughing
finally exit south and east from the Mid-Hudson Valley and
northwestern Connecticut by mid-morning, as dry weather returns
across the region. Surface high pressure to the west and weak
surface troughing offshore to the southeast will result in
potentially gusty winds as high as 20 mph along north-south
oriented valleys and in areas of high terrain.

The cooler airmass will additionally feature much drier air,
with dewpoints falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s by Thursday
evening. This combination of dry air and gusty winds may promote
a brief period of marginal risk for fire spread; see additional
details in the Fire Weather discussion below. Cloud coverage
will increase with diurnal heating in the afternoon, before
rapidly rising heights aloft result in a robust clearing trend
through Thursday evening and night. As narrow but high amplitude
upper ridging and associated surface high pressure approach
from the west, light winds and largely clear skies will result
in ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in cool
overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region.

Building ridging and surface high pressure will yield continued
dry weather through Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will
trend upward beneath mostly sunny skies, reaching afternoon
highs in the 60s to mid 70s, and falling to overnight lows
in the 40s to near 50 across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the weekend will be replaced by general
flat/zonal upper level flow by early next week. Overall, much of the
long term will feature mostly dry and summerlike weather. There
remains some uncertainty on when upper-level shortwave perturbations
will pass through the flow bringing chances for some showers.
Currently, next Tuesday may be the more favored day during this
period. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the period as
well.

Temperatures will trend upward through the period with highs
starting out in the 70s to around 80 on Saturday rising to the upper
70s to upper 80s by Tuesday. Lows will also trend upward starting
out in the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday night to the mid-50s to
lower 60s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Flying conditions are currently VFR at all
TAF sites. Mainly VFR conditions should persist well into tonight at
all TAF sites, with the only exception being if a stray shower moves
over POU this afternoon then brief vsby reductions would be
possible.

Tonight, an upper-level disturbance will bring a period of showers
to POU with MVFR cigs and vsbys with any rain. Some showers may make
it to PSF as well late tonight, but confidence is lower on how far
north showers get so will address this with a prob30 group for now.
ALB/GFL should remain VFR through the entire night. Any showers
taper off by 12-13z tomorrow morning with a return to VFR conditions
at all TAF sites with just a few passing mid-level clouds through
the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be from the west/northwest at 5-10 kt this afternoon,
becoming northwest to northerly this evening and eventually
northerly overnight at around 5 kt. Winds tomorrow morning increase
to 5-10 kt from the north/northwest after sunrise through at least
18z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Thursday, a dry airmass and deep mixing will
result in surface dewpoints falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across
the region, while temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s will lead
to minimum RH values around 30 to 40%. Wind gusts now look to max
out around 15 kt. Furthermore, most areas saw at least a quarter to
half inch of rain earlier this week. In portions of the Mid Hudson
Valley where rainfall amounts were lower earlier this week
(northeast Ulster, northwest Dutchess, southwest Columbia Counties),
additional rainfall amounts tonight of around a quarter inch should
mitigate fire weather concerns. Therefore, special weather statements
for enhanced fire weather spread are not currently being considered.

Friday will also feature RH values of 30-40% and wind gusts
potentially of 15-20 mph. However, the appreciable rainfall of the
previous several days should once again limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Picard/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard