141
FXUS61 KALY 271120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered over New England resulting
in dry conditions and above normal temperatures through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GOES-East nighttime microphysics imagery and surface observations
indicate that pockets of fog have developed this morning across the
southern Adirondacks, northern Taconics, and northern Berkshires.
While some observing sites have reported visibilities reduced to a
quarter mile, imagery from area skycams suggests that these pockets
of dense fog are extremely isolated. The pockets of fog are expected
to persist over 3-4 hours before mixing out after sunrise.

High pressure building southeastward in the wake of yesterday`s
surface front will result in drier and warmer conditions today.
This area of high pressure will result in very light winds
overnight tonight. However, high level clouds associated with
the tropical moister from Hurricane Helene is expected to
inhibit a more favorable setup for radiational cooling and fog
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain centered over New England on Saturday
resulting in another dry day with above normal temperatures.
Increasing PWATs and advection of cyclonic vorticity from the
south will support a low chance (less than 20%) of light rain
showers from I-90 south and west late Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lgt shwr chances will continue for southern portions of the fcst
area early Sunday as moisture associated with Helene remains in
the area. As the daylight hours progress, precip chances should
retreat to our southwest as sfc high pressure and associated
ridge axis shift further south into southern New England. Dry
weather will then continue through the day on Monday before shwr
chances increase once again on Tuesday as moisture associated
with Helene remnants lifts north ahead of an approaching cold
front to our northwest. This will set the stage for continued
shwr chances through Wednesday before high pressure builds in on
Thursday. Temperatures will start out slightly above normal
early in the period with highs reaching the low to mid 70s for
vly locations both Sunday and Monday. Cooler temps are then
expected to close out the period as rain chances increase and
cooler air moves in behind Wednesday`s cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog and low clouds that developed overnight is expected to mix
out from 12Z-14Z and give way to VFR conditions throughout the
day. Conditions could support the development of fog again early
Saturday morning. However, the probability of operational
impacts currently looks to be less than 30% and no mention was
included in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Humphrey
NEAR TERM...Humphrey
SHORT TERM...Humphrey
LONG TERM...Gitro
AVIATION...Humphrey