902
FXUS61 KALY 150038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
838 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms end this evening.
Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds
across the region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun and
seasonable temperatures before a prolonged period of hot and
humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 815 PM, the majority of the severe weather today has
remained south of our area in NJ/NYC/eastern PA with just some
non-severe storms in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills,
Berkshire County and eastern Catskill where dew points remain
moist in the low 60s. Further north, a dew point boundary has
shifted from north to south across the southern Adirondacks,
Upper Hudson Valley and through the Capital District resulting
in much lower dew points that have dropped into the low 50s.
This boundary has stalled across Greene, Columbia, and southern
Berkshire County where a few isolated storms have developed
along it. MLCAPE values per the SPC mesoanalysis around
1000J/kg is available south of this boundary where dew points
remain moist so will continue to interrogate the updraft
strength and other radar signatures to monitor severe weather
potential. Otherwise, an area of rain and storms from the
organized severe storms in NJ/NYC grazed southern Ulster/Dutches
and Litchfield County but did not result in severe weather and
even that activity will continue exiting into New England
through early evening.

As the true cold front and associated cold pool continues to
push south and east through the southern Adirondacks this
evening, a few isolated showers may develop so maintained slight
chance POPs here; however, any showers will diminish with the
lose of daytime heating and the shortwave trough shifts
eastward. Most showers should end before Midnight. Sfc winds
will shift to the north- northwest as the cold front push south
and eastward overnight and the incoming dry air will help clear
the skies as well with dew points falling behind the boundary.

Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this
evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward
daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or
below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the
40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly
likely for much of next week...

Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next
week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM
mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s
Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper
80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat
indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas
during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the
Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may
develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak
front possibly approaches from the north.

Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max
temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper
70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be
some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern
Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Leading edge of drier air will sink south and east of KALB
through this afternoon. Ahead of this, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible and affect KPSF and KPOU through
this evening. Heaviest downpours may produce MVFR/IFR Vsbys.
Little if any showers are expected at KALB and KGFL through this
afternoon.

Main cold front will sink southward across the region tonight,
with isolated showers possible. Coverage of showers looks to
remain limited outside of KPOU and KPSF, so no mention of
showers at KGFL and KALB. Some patchy fog could form in areas
where rainfall occurs this afternoon and before the cold front
passes through, so can not rule out a period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys
at KPSF and KPOU overnight.

VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday.

South to southeast winds will shift into the west/southwest at
KGFL and KALB this afternoon at 5-10 KT with some gusts up to 20
KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest at 5-10 KT at
KPSF and KPOU.

For tonight, winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10
KT, then into the north to northeast after midnight at similar
speeds. North to northeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT
after sunrise with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially
at KGFL through around noontime. North to northeast winds will
then decrease to 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Speciale