Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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902 FXUS61 KALY 150038 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 838 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms end this evening. Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds across the region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures before a prolonged period of hot and humid weather arrives for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 815 PM, the majority of the severe weather today has remained south of our area in NJ/NYC/eastern PA with just some non-severe storms in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, Berkshire County and eastern Catskill where dew points remain moist in the low 60s. Further north, a dew point boundary has shifted from north to south across the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and through the Capital District resulting in much lower dew points that have dropped into the low 50s. This boundary has stalled across Greene, Columbia, and southern Berkshire County where a few isolated storms have developed along it. MLCAPE values per the SPC mesoanalysis around 1000J/kg is available south of this boundary where dew points remain moist so will continue to interrogate the updraft strength and other radar signatures to monitor severe weather potential. Otherwise, an area of rain and storms from the organized severe storms in NJ/NYC grazed southern Ulster/Dutches and Litchfield County but did not result in severe weather and even that activity will continue exiting into New England through early evening. As the true cold front and associated cold pool continues to push south and east through the southern Adirondacks this evening, a few isolated showers may develop so maintained slight chance POPs here; however, any showers will diminish with the lose of daytime heating and the shortwave trough shifts eastward. Most showers should end before Midnight. Sfc winds will shift to the north- northwest as the cold front push south and eastward overnight and the incoming dry air will help clear the skies as well with dew points falling behind the boundary. Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning, especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs, otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning, especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in the 70s. Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the 40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon, otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s. Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly likely for much of next week... Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper 80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak front possibly approaches from the north. Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes nearby. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Leading edge of drier air will sink south and east of KALB through this afternoon. Ahead of this, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and affect KPSF and KPOU through this evening. Heaviest downpours may produce MVFR/IFR Vsbys. Little if any showers are expected at KALB and KGFL through this afternoon. Main cold front will sink southward across the region tonight, with isolated showers possible. Coverage of showers looks to remain limited outside of KPOU and KPSF, so no mention of showers at KGFL and KALB. Some patchy fog could form in areas where rainfall occurs this afternoon and before the cold front passes through, so can not rule out a period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys at KPSF and KPOU overnight. VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday. South to southeast winds will shift into the west/southwest at KGFL and KALB this afternoon at 5-10 KT with some gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest at 5-10 KT at KPSF and KPOU. For tonight, winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10 KT, then into the north to northeast after midnight at similar speeds. North to northeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT after sunrise with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at KGFL through around noontime. North to northeast winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Speciale