381
FXUS61 KALY 141804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
204 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will track through the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong to severe south and east of the Capital
District. High pressure will then build across the region
through the weekend, bringing fair weather and seasonable
temperatures. Hot and humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM EDT, leading edge of drier low level air now
extending from the upper Hudson Valley into the Capital Region
into the eastern Catskills. A cumulus cloud field has developed
along this leading edge, and will likely be the initiation point
for additional isolated to scattered convection through this
afternoon. MU CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg have developed ahead of
this boundary, along with with 0-6 KM Effective Shear of 30-40
KT per latest SPC Mesoanalysis. So, this area, mainly south/east
of Albany extending into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
NW CT and Berkshires will remain where the greatest threat for
few potential instances of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening, mainly for strong/damaging wind gusts.

Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms may affect extreme
southern Ulster/Dutchess and Litchfield Counties through this
afternoon, some of which may also contain heavy rainfall. One
wave will pass this area over the next 1-2 hours; another over
central PA may affect this region between 6 and 9 PM this
evening.

Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop across the
southern Adirondacks later this afternoon, closer to the actual
cold front, and proximate to colder air aloft.

Max temps may spike into the lower/mid 80s across portions of
the Capital Region and upper Hudson Valley this afternoon, with
mainly mid 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.

For tonight, showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across
portions of the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern
Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT, with some lighter showers
possibly extending as far north as southern portions of the
Capital Region and central Berkshires. Showers/thunderstorms
should decrease from NW to SE after midnight as shortwave passes
by and cold front shifts farther south and east of region.

Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this
evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward
daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with widespread low
temperatures in the 40s to around 50, although some 30s will be
possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper impulse it expected to track through northern areas
Sunday night into Monday with just an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, mainly in the southern Adirondacks. Once this upper
impulse exits, upper ridging will build into the eastern U.S. and
will amplify.

There is an increasing consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles
that the very strong upper ridging will be centered in the southern
Appalachians to OH Valley by Tuesday and overhead in the
northeastern U.S. by Wednesday. Then, there are disagreements in
sources of guidance/ensembles whether the upper ridging builds back
south or if it builds east and offshore by Thursday. Either way,
extreme heat along with oppressive humidity is likely Tuesday
through Thursday. Some record highs are possible. Will some areas,
including Albany, reach 100 degrees at some point Tuesday through
Thursday? It is not likely but not out of the question.

There are hints of some isolated diurnal thunderstorms each
afternoon but strong midlevel and upper level capping with the
strong upper ridging will limit those possibilities. Any convective
clouds or cloud debris could filter the sun just enough to prevent
maximum heat. The 500 hPa heights are forecasted to be extremely
anomalously high, increasing confidence in the extreme heat over the
region.

High temperatures Monday well into the 80s with around 80 higher
terrain. Then, the extreme heat arrives. High temperatures Tuesday
in the lower to mid 90s with upper 80s higher terrain. It may feel
like around 100 degrees in some areas due to the humidity. Highs
Wednesday and Thursday in the mid to upper 90s with around 90 in
higher terrain. It will feel like 100 or more in some areas. There
will not be much relief at night as lows Tuesday night and Wednesday
night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There are signals of
some gradual relief and cooler temperatures at the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Leading edge of drier air will sink south and east of KALB
through this afternoon. Ahead of this, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible and affect KPSF and KPOU through
this evening. Heaviest downpours may produce MVFR/IFR Vsbys.
Little if any showers are expected at KALB and KGFL through this
afternoon.

Main cold front will sink southward across the region tonight,
with isolated showers possible. Coverage of showers looks to
remain limited outside of KPOU and KPSF, so no mention of
showers at KGFL and KALB. Some patchy fog could form in areas
where rainfall occurs this afternoon and before the cold front
passes through, so can not rule out a period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys
at KPSF and KPOU overnight.

VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday.

South to southeast winds will shift into the west/southwest at
KGFL and KALB this afternoon at 5-10 KT with some gusts up to 20
KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest at 5-10 KT at
KPSF and KPOU.

For tonight, winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10
KT, then into the north to northeast after midnight at similar
speeds. North to northeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT
after sunrise with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially
at KGFL through around noontime. North to northeast winds will
then decrease to 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL