226
FXUS61 KALY 141956
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
356 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will track through the region this evening,
bringing showers and thunderstorms to areas mainly south and
east of the Capital District, some of which could be strong to
severe. High pressure will then build across the region through
the weekend, bringing fair weather and seasonable temperatures.
Hot and humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT, leading edge of drier low level air now
extending from SW VT to areas just S/E of the Capital Region
into the NE Catskills. A cumulus cloud field has developed
along this leading edge, with additional isolated to scattered
convection possible through this afternoon for areas S and E of
this boundary. MU CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg have developed ahead
of this boundary, along with with 0-6 KM Effective Shear of
30-40 KT per latest SPC Mesoanalysis. So, this area, south/east
of Albany extending into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
NW CT and Berkshires will remain where the greatest threat for
few potential instances of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening, mainly for strong/damaging wind gusts.

Cluster of showers/storms across eastern PA may graze far
southern Ulster/Dutchess and Litchfield Counties after 5 PM this
evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms,
especially close to the I-84 corridor.

Additional isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop across the
southern Adirondacks later this afternoon, closer to the actual
cold front, and proximate to colder air aloft. SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates SB CAPES of 500-1000 J/kg in this area, so some low
topped convection will be possible in this area, perhaps
extending as far south and east as the Lake George region early
this evening.

Max temps have spiked into the lower/mid 80s across portions of
the Capital Region and upper Hudson Valley, with mainly mid 70s
to lower 80s elsewhere.

For tonight, showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across
portions of the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern
Berkshires and Litchfield County, CT, with some lighter showers
possibly expanding as far north as southern portions of the
Capital Region and central Berkshires. Showers/thunderstorms
should decrease from NW to SE after midnight as shortwave passes
by and cold front shifts farther south and east of region.

Some patchy fog may form in areas where rainfall occurs this
evening, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy toward
daybreak with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering low clouds will be possible Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs,
otherwise mainly sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday
morning. North/northeast winds may be gusty Saturday morning,
especially across the upper Hudson Valley/Lake George/Saratoga
region where some gusts as high as 25-30 mph could occur before
diminishing during the afternoon. High temperatures mainly in
the 70s.

Clear and chilly Saturday night, with PWAT`s dropping to or
below 0.50" and light/calm wind. This should provide excellent
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to drop off into the
40s to around 50, although some upper 30s will be possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunshine may mix with high clouds at times Sunday afternoon,
otherwise another pleasant day with highs mainly in the 70s.

Clouds increase Sunday night, and some showers/isolated
thunderstorms could develop prior to daybreak Monday as mid
level warm advection strengthens. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Prolonged period of excessive heat/high humidity increasingly
likely for much of next week...

Strong mid/upper level ridging sets up across eastern U.S. next
week, allowing for heat and humidity to build. Have used NBM
mean for forecast temperatures, giving widespread mid/upper 90s
Tuesday through Friday for elevations below 1000 feet, and upper
80s to lower 90s above 1000 feet. Dewpoints should reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s during this time period, allowing heat
indices to reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s in valley areas
during this time. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, warmest in valleys immediately adjacent to the
Hudson/Mohawk Rivers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may
develop each afternoon, especially by Thursday-Friday as a weak
front possibly approaches from the north.

Monday will be the transition day to hotter weather, with max
temps generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s in valleys and upper
70s to lower 80s across higher terrain areas. There could be
some clouds and perhaps isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms around, especially across the southern
Adirondacks, as a weak mid/upper level disturbance passes
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Leading edge of drier air will sink south and east of KALB
through this afternoon. Ahead of this, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible and affect KPSF and KPOU through
this evening. Heaviest downpours may produce MVFR/IFR Vsbys.
Little if any showers are expected at KALB and KGFL through this
afternoon.

Main cold front will sink southward across the region tonight,
with isolated showers possible. Coverage of showers looks to
remain limited outside of KPOU and KPSF, so no mention of
showers at KGFL and KALB. Some patchy fog could form in areas
where rainfall occurs this afternoon and before the cold front
passes through, so can not rule out a period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys
at KPSF and KPOU overnight.

VFR conditions will then prevail Saturday.

South to southeast winds will shift into the west/southwest at
KGFL and KALB this afternoon at 5-10 KT with some gusts up to 20
KT possible. Winds will remain south to southwest at 5-10 KT at
KPSF and KPOU.

For tonight, winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10
KT, then into the north to northeast after midnight at similar
speeds. North to northeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT
after sunrise with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially
at KGFL through around noontime. North to northeast winds will
then decrease to 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL