660
FXUS64 KAMA 292257
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this
evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and
storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms
already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow
moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains.
There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that
will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight.
Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage
of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has
now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast
Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east
tomorrow morning.

Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on
Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery
for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles
early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start
off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles
and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal
into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms
form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be
challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher
LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and
better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as
the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will
significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not
completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the
area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance
for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles
Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each
day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain
will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for
excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with
lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s
storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a
ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday
temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas
given the high pressure over the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

All three terminals are expected to remain VFR through the early
parts of the 00Z TAF period. It will not be until after 06Z when
some thunderstorms may impact KGUY, with the potential for KDHT
and KAMA more around 09Z to 12Z. Even if storms do not occur for
one or more of the TAF sites some MVFR CIGs may be possible during
this time leading up to sunrise. There may be a small break in
storm activity from 12Z through 18Z then the potential for storms
will once again return to the combined Panhandles. For the first
round 06Z through 12Z there is still a bit of uncertainty as to
whether KAMA or KDHT will be impacted. Winds should remain
southerly around 10 to 15 kts pending any thunderstorms that may
cause erratic winds.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  86  58  78 /  40  50  70  30
Beaver OK                  62  84  57  79 /  50  50  90  30
Boise City OK              58  86  54  78 /  50  60  60  40
Borger TX                  64  89  60  83 /  40  50  80  30
Boys Ranch TX              62  91  59  82 /  40  50  60  30
Canyon TX                  61  87  57  78 /  40  40  60  30
Clarendon TX               61  81  59  77 /  50  50  80  50
Dalhart TX                 58  87  53  79 /  30  50  60  30
Guymon OK                  60  86  56  79 /  50  60  80  30
Hereford TX                61  91  57  81 /  30  30  50  30
Lipscomb TX                63  84  60  78 /  50  70  90  40
Pampa TX                   62  84  59  78 /  40  50  80  40
Shamrock TX                62  82  59  79 /  50  60  90  50
Wellington TX              63  82  60  79 /  50  60  90  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...36