072
FXUS64 KAMA 231734
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Currently the FA is under quasi-zonal flow aloft, with lots of
dry air in the mid to upper levels as seen in GOES-16 water vapor
imagery. At the surface is southeasterly winds that are expected
to bring the surface RH up to around 90 to 100 percent temporarily
this morning, maybe even bring some low clouds to the southern TX
Panhandle during sunrise. During the late morning however, a
surface trough to the west will deepen over the area with surface
winds turning southwesterly and pushing higher dewpoints off into
far eastern Panhandles into western OK. This will tighten a
dryline that is expected to lay up around the TX/OK state line.
Thunderstorms are in fact expected to fire off this afternoon into
evening east of the dryline. However, confidence is really low
that any storms will get going in the eastern combined Panhandles.
Leaving a 10 to 20 PoP in just in case. If a storm does develop
in the eastern Panhandles, it is not out of the possibility that
it can grow quickly and become severe before exiting into western
OK.

Behind the dryline, temperatures are expected to warm into the
90s and the surface trough is expected to help mix that drier air
aloft to the surface dropping dewpoints into the teens and
twenties across the western combined Panhandles. This will lead to
RH values potentially dropping as low as 5 percent for some
areas. Pressure gradient winds are also expected to bring 20 to 25
mph southwest winds to the central and western combined
Panhandles. With much of the west being behind in rainfall this
spring, critical fire weather conditions will be of concern.

After midnight tonight a cold front is expected to enter the
combined Panhandles once again. Bringing northerly winds around 15
to 25 mph behind the front after midnight. Because of this front
Friday`s daytime highs are expected to be cooler than today in the
80s.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Saturday is looking to be warm, dry, and breezy with the potential
of critical fire weather conditions returning in the western
combined Panhandles. This will be due to a leeside low ahead of a
mid to upper level shortwave trough that will move in Sat night
bringing with it a weak cold front for Sunday. A dryline will mix
into OK leaving the combined Panhandles in westerly winds and Tds
in the teens to 20s. Combined with high temperatures well into the
90s RH values are expected to drop well into the single digits
again. With a LLTR in place PDC and areas off the Caprock will
potentially hit 100 degrees again. Sunday, northerly winds behind
the weak cold front will help suppress temperatures a bit with
highs expected to be more in the 80s.

The rest of the extended period looks to be warm and benign. At
least until late Tue evening. A ridge will be in place over the FA
and models are starting to hint a potential ridge riders helping
to spark off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly going into the
overnight periods Tue night and again Wed night. This will all
depend on how much low level moisture can stay over the area as
these ridge riders come across. Have stuck with NBM PoPs (20-30%)
for now as it is still a ways away. With much of the area being
well below normal in spring time precipitation storms will be well
welcomed.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to hold under these gusty
southwesterly winds. Expect these winds to last through the late
evening hours with potential for gust to reach near the 35 kt
mark. Low chance of severe thunderstorms does exist in the far
eastern portion of the Panhandles, but at this time no impacts are
expected to the terminals. Otherwise, look for a cold frontal
passage to move through late tonight and create a northerly wind
shift at all terminals by sunrise Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in
western portions of the combined TX Panhandle as winds pick up in
the 20 to 25 mph range coinciding with RH values falling to near
5%. This will introduce an overall RFTI around 5 to 6 to areas
that have seen a huge deficit in spring rain. RH values are
expected to start the morning out around 90 percent but fall to
near 5 percent by this afternoon as a dryline mixes east. Twenty
foot winds may only top out around 25 mph. However, if a fire can
get started the low RH and breezy conditions could create issues
with containing a fire. The highest concern is in the western
Canadian River Value with better fuels and rougher terrain and the
lack of crop circle land. Due to the low RH expected across much
of the area, counties that do not see critical conditions will
most likely see elevated conditions.

Tomorrow, elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the
western Canadian River Valley west of Lake Meredith. However,
winds may become light in the afternoon when the lowest RH values
occur. RH values are expected to bottom out in the teens with
slightly cooler afternoon temperatures.

Saturday, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return
in the west again with high temperatures reaching well into the
90s and another surface trough mixing dry air to the surface.
Winds could potentially be higher than today especially up against
the NM/TX state line and RH values are expected to drop into the
single digits once again.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  83  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  54  82  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  77  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  57  84  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              54  86  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  54  85  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               57  81  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 49  81  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  50  79  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                53  87  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                57  83  54  93 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   55  83  55  94 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                57  83  55  96 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              57  84  56  99 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-
     007-011-012-016.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...11