Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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034 FXUS64 KAMA 110513 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1213 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A weather system centered over the desert SW has started to influence the southern plains. This has seen some low but more so mid level moisture move into the southern plains from the north. This moisture has slowly moved into the western panhandles which will allow for a low chance of light rain showers to even isolated thunderstorm to form this afternoon to evening. Accumulations of any rainfall during this time will be very low as the moisture is still not high. As the weather systems influence grows through today and tonight it will cause the winds to shift to a SE flow. The winds will strengthen some becoming gusty during the afternoon and evening hours. These winds will then drive in additional low level moisture across the panhandles. This will cause the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to increase and cover the entire panhandles. As there will be more moisture in play moderate to even brief heavy rainfall may occur with these showers and thunderstorms increasing rainfall yields. Sunday will see the weather system finally move out of the desert SW and across the southern plains. In doing so it will draw additional moisture across the panhandles while increasing the instability and environmental dynamics. This will lead to even higher chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the panhandles. It will also open up at least a low chance for strong to even severe thunderstorms. The central to eastern portions of the panhandles are currently the more favored area for this low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to take place. The main threat from these powerful storms is going to be large hail and damaging winds. All this chat of rain and thunderstorms doesn`t guarantee that any spot will receive any rain at all, it could be that one spot get multiple showers and thunderstorms while other will stay dry the whole time. So while the whole panhandles should average 0.5 to 1 in of rain some area will see higher some will see lower or nothing. This weekend will be on the cooler side as the ample moisture will have a high chance of causing fairly extensive clouds. This will help to suppress daytime heating bringing down the temperatures. This will further be compounded by the system itself moving cooler air across the southern plains. So below average highs in the 60s to 70s have a high chance of occurring for both Saturday and Sunday. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Showers/storms will hopefully be ongoing intermittently through the weekend, creating a less than obvious thunderstorm outlook on Sunday. More vigorous upper level support should arrive to the region by Sunday afternoon-evening as a positively tilted trough ejects towards the Plains. Deep-layer moisture will remain in place by the time this system arrives, with high PWATs around or greater than 1.00" for much of the Panhandles. The question lies in how much instability can exist for afternoon convection, likely dependent on daytime heating and recovery from any overnight/ morning convection, along with if and where the cap can break to utilize any available fuel. As a sfc trough develops through the day, it may help to break the cap and initiate additional convection. Deep-layer shear would likely be favorable for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms IF sufficient instability remains in place east of the sfc trough. Based on ensemble probabilities for CAPE >1000 J/kg (40-70%), the most favored areas for this low-end severe potential would reside across the eastern to central combined Panhandles. Regardless, any shower or storm on Sunday would likely provide beneficial rainfall, especially across eastern counties where model forecast soundings depict a saturated environment with tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Generally expect weekend rainfall totals in the 0.1-0.5" range, with localized higher localized totals in the 0.75-1.00" range or greater certainly plausible. As the system departs Sunday night, a weak cold front will swoop down and steal whatever moisture remains, although some lingering showers may persist into Monday morning. Monday will actually be warmer behind the front however, thanks to eroding cloud cover and increased sunshine. Sfc winds shift to south- southwesterly Tuesday as ridging aloft makes a temporary return. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, warming into the 80s Tuesday. Rain and storms could return by midweek when ensembles agree another shortwave approaches the region. Details are still up in the air and although currently unimpressive, Wednesday could be a day to monitor for strong to severe storms, with rain chances persisting into Thursday. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated until the early evening hours when MVFR ceilings will move in. There`s a chance for rain during the afternoon hours, but currently the greater confidence in coverage will wait for the evening hours. Can`t rule out some thunderstorms but confidence is too low at this time to include in the TAFs. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 69 52 72 50 / 60 70 80 30 Beaver OK 79 52 73 50 / 40 60 90 60 Boise City OK 67 47 72 46 / 80 70 80 30 Borger TX 76 54 77 51 / 60 70 90 50 Boys Ranch TX 70 52 77 48 / 70 80 70 30 Canyon TX 67 51 74 48 / 60 70 70 30 Clarendon TX 71 53 69 52 / 60 60 90 50 Dalhart TX 65 48 74 45 / 80 80 70 20 Guymon OK 73 50 74 48 / 60 70 90 50 Hereford TX 67 52 76 48 / 70 80 60 20 Lipscomb TX 78 54 72 52 / 30 70 90 70 Pampa TX 73 53 71 50 / 50 60 90 50 Shamrock TX 75 54 68 52 / 40 60 90 70 Wellington TX 75 54 68 54 / 40 60 90 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...52