Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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905 FXUS64 KAMA 232336 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 636 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Today continues to see potential as a duel threat day with low chances of severe thunderstorm in the eastern Panhandles and critical fire weather expected across the west. With the severe potential for today, latest model agreement is still seeing good zonal flow in the mid to upper levels alongside a strengthening lee-side surface low. These two are currently working in conjunction to push the dryline back east alongside the present low-level moisture that built in during the overnight. As it stands, latest CAMs are seeing very good ingredient east of the dryline that would sustain a strong severe storm this afternoon. Currently, MLCAPE values are trending round 3000 to 3500 J/kg along our eastern most border with some models peaking out near 4000 J/kg. Good shear is also present with effective bulk shear pushing 30 to 40 kt in those same areas. However, development of storms continues to lean more on the very conditional side for the day with most models not expecting storms developing over our area at all. One of the main factors in halting development continues to be the presence of very dry and stable air at the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere that is moving in with this zonal flow. This air pocket will keep the atmosphere very well capped for the day making it hard for storms to develop convectivly this afternoon and evening. The dryline also will not be much help either as most models are expecting it to stay right in our eastern most counties which would result in any development off of the boundary quickly exiting into Central Oklahoma. Still, any development that does occur will have to be monitored given the ingredients present are capable of producing all hazards. Meanwhile in the westerner half of the Panhandles, critical fire weather conditions are present with latest observation sensor already seeing winds gust over 30 mph this afternoon. Added to this will be relative humidity values dropping into the single digits clear into the evening hours. Given current conditions, a Red Flag Warning will be ongoing until 8 pm tonight for most of the western Texas Panhandles. As we head into the overnight, look for a weak cold front will move in from the north late Thursday night following a northerly trough. Breezy northerly winds will likely follow the passage alongside a slight recovery of RH values back into the low 40% range. Otherwise, much quieter and cooler condition will likely follow Friday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Saturday a trough still looks to eject from the desert SW and pass across the Great Plains. The passage of this system will cause the winds to become gusty from the SW to W. There will not be moisture associated with this system in fact the winds will likely move even drier air across the panhandles. The gusty winds coupled with the dry conditions will lead to critical fire conditions across much of the western panhandles with elevated conditions across the rest of the panhandles. The winds will also bring warmer air into the panhandles and cause some subsidence heating be going from higher terrain to lower terrain. This will make Saturday hot with highs in the 90s. These hotter and drier conditions wont last to long as a cold front associated with the trough will scrape across the panhandles late on Saturday into early Sunday. This will shift the winds to the north and begin a cooling trend. This will see the highs drop to the 80s and 90s for Sunday and then 80s for Monday. While conditions become a little more moist no weather much less cloud cover is expected. The overall weather pattern Sunday and Monday will shift to a more NW flow aloft across the panhandles as a ridge develops over NM and CO. This pattern looks more likely than not to persist through the mid week. The pattern will likely set up SE winds across the southern plains which will allow moisture to push into the panhandles. This moisture will be coupled with overall unstable conditions which should prove sufficient to spark off daytime rain showers and thunderstorms. The moisture depth likewise looks sufficient for these rain showers and thunderstorms to produce meaningful rain amounts across the panhandles. If minor troughs manage to round the ridge and pass into the panhandles then even strong to severe thunderstorms could result. It is still to far out to tell if this will be the case but such a setup is not uncommon so it must be considered as a possibility. Temperatures for mid week look to remain near normal with 80s to low 90s being most probable at this time. SH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds will start out of the SW and shifting to northerly towards the end of the TAF period with winds sustained 10-20 kts. Some ws around 2 kft of 35-50 kts just before sunrise Friday morning at all TAF sites, with some adjustments in timing of ws for the next TAF package. Meccariello && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in western portions of the combined TX Panhandle as winds pick up in the 20 to 25 mph range coinciding with RH values falling to near 5%. This will introduce an overall RFTI around 5 to 6 to areas that have seen a huge deficit in spring rain. RH values are expected to start the morning out around 90 percent but fall to near 5 percent by this afternoon as a dryline mixes east. Twenty foot winds may only top out around 25 mph. However, if a fire can get started the low RH and breezy conditions could create issues with containing a fire. The highest concern is in the western Canadian River Value with better fuels and rougher terrain and the lack of crop circle land. Due to the low RH expected across much of the area, counties that do not see critical conditions will most likely see elevated conditions. Saturday, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return in the west again with high temperatures reaching well into the 90s and another surface trough mixing dry air to the surface. Winds could potentially be higher than today especially up against the NM/TX state line and RH values are expected to drop into the single digits once again. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 81 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 54 81 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 47 77 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 56 84 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 54 84 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 54 82 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 56 81 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 48 79 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 50 79 50 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 53 85 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 57 81 54 93 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 55 81 54 95 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 58 82 54 96 / 20 0 0 0 Wellington TX 58 84 55 99 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...29