Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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585 FXUS64 KAMA 311923 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Today is shaping up to have another round of active weather with rain showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Currently the clear to mostly clear skies over the panhandles is allowing instability to increase once again across the region. The increasing instability will be coupled with a slight increase in moisture being brought in by a weak southerly flow. These are already fueling the development of rain showers and thunderstorms in the mountains of NM and CO. With the passage of a shortwave trough this convection will propagate to the east into the OK and TX panhandles during the late afternoon through the evening. The dynamics associated with this trough should allow for a few storms to become more agonized and severe. The main threat from the severe thunderstorms remains large hail and damaging winds with a very low chance for a tornado. While the odds are very low a few of these storms can cause high rain rates and flash flooding. Once the trough passes to the east some further rain showers and thunderstorms may develop during the overnight to early morning hours of Saturday. These storms have a very low chance of causing anything beyond additional light rainfall. For Saturday another trough that is overall more potent than today will pass across the panhandles during the afternoon and evening hours. Similar to today these storms will most likely first form in the high terrain of NM and CO and then be pushed eastward into the OK and TX panhandles. The big question to the amount and coverage of this round of storms will be in how much rain showers and thunderstorms occurred tonight into Saturday. If we have a lot of overnight storms then the available energy for the afternoon and evening storms on Saturday will be greatly diminished. If the activity overnight is low or doesn`t materialize then Saturday afternoon and evening will see more vigorous and extensive activity. Regardless in amount of activity the rain showers and thunderstorms are likely to pass in a W to E fashion across the panhandles during the afternoon and evening. The activity should in large be to the east going into overnight hours. A few thunderstorms could regenerate behind this line but this will be conditional based on the extent of the previous activity. Current dynamics associated with the trough will allow for these thunderstorms to be severe and damaging winds remaining the main threats. Tornados remain a very low threat but cannot be fully ruled out for Saturday. Moisture amounts likewise will allow for a low chance of flash flooding from storms with high rain rates. The stronger nature of the trough will allow for winds to become gusty during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts most likely in the 20s to low 30s mph range. These southerly winds will also allow for temperatures to be warmer on Saturday with highs in the mid to high 80s across the panhandles. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The situation Sunday morning across the Panhandles is very uncertain given that there are possibly two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms between today and Sunday, with each round impacting the succeeding day`s timing and impacts of thunderstorms. It seems as though that by Sunday morning, a potential complex of thunderstorms should be out of the Panhandles with clouds and potentially isolated showers lingering through the morning. Atmospheric recovery and destabilization should eventually occur throughout the day as clouds clear out and southerly winds bring in warmth and low-level moisture. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles and a lee surface low will develop in southeastern Colorado, helping bring dry southwesterly winds in to the western combined Panhandles with a surface trough setting up somewhere in the central Panhandles. Thunderstorms may develop along the surface trough and become strong to severe. However, there are definitely failure modes for severe thunderstorm potential. It is entirely possible that Saturday night`s convection is very robust and/or lingers late into the night. In this case, it may take longer for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize before the shortwave trough arrives in the afternoon. Additionally, temperatures aloft will be warmer than what we`ve seen from this northwest flow regime over the past week, therefore we would have to warm into at least the 80s to low-90s to breach the inversion. Unfortunately, we break the wet and active pattern starting Monday and temperatures warm into the 90s across the Panhandles. Tuesday may be the hottest day of the week as 30-33C 850mb temperatures advect into the area, allowing for temperatures in the mid-90s to low-100s. Will have to watch Palo Duro Canyon closely as NBM brings highs up to 103 degrees, but winds are forecast to be weak which may allow for some additional heat enhancement in the Canyon which may bring temperatures up to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). An upper-level ridge builds just west of the Panhandles Wednesday and into the latter half of the work week, and northwest flow may resume as an upper-level trough dips down into the Great Lakes/Midwest region. This may re-introduce another wet and active pattern depending upon the details of the ridge to the west and the trough to the east. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR and fair weather conditions will persist at all terminals to the mid afternoon hours. Then during the late afternoon a lines of thunderstorms have a high chance of forming in the western panhandles. These will move in a E to SE direction and will have a high chance of impacting all terminals during the late afternoon through evening. These thunderstorms may degrade conditions to MVFR with a low chance of becoming IFR or less. The is a moderate chance that ANY hail will occur and a low chance that severe hail of 1 in or greater will occur. Winds will be gusty with the passage of these thunderstorms with a low chance of 50+ kt gusts. Post passage of the thunderstorms conditions have a high chance or returning to VFR with a low chance of continued light rain showers. Another round of thunderstorms with a low chance of severe thunderstorms is expected for Saturday afternoon to evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 86 62 91 / 50 20 30 20 Beaver OK 59 87 62 91 / 40 40 50 20 Boise City OK 54 86 57 92 / 60 40 30 10 Borger TX 63 90 64 95 / 60 20 40 20 Boys Ranch TX 60 90 62 96 / 50 30 30 10 Canyon TX 60 86 61 92 / 50 20 30 20 Clarendon TX 61 84 62 87 / 40 30 40 40 Dalhart TX 56 87 57 93 / 50 30 30 10 Guymon OK 57 87 60 92 / 50 40 40 20 Hereford TX 60 88 60 94 / 40 10 30 10 Lipscomb TX 60 86 63 89 / 50 40 40 20 Pampa TX 61 85 63 89 / 50 20 40 20 Shamrock TX 62 84 63 87 / 40 30 40 40 Wellington TX 63 85 64 87 / 30 20 40 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...98