Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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104 FXUS64 KAMA 311708 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1208 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 As of this writing, the coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms seen on radar is far less than this time Thursday morning as it appears the atmosphere may be fairly well worked over from the more widespread showers and storms that developed Thursday afternoon and evening. That said, once the precipitation from this morning either dissipates or moves out of the area, the atmosphere should have sufficient time to recover from late this morning onward through the afternoon hours. If that occurs, then expect more showers and storms to form over the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico aided by the passage of another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall west northwest flow pattern. These showers and storms would then track across the OK and TX Panhandles very late this afternoon through tonight. A few storms will have the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards given steep mid level lapse rates, plenty of available moisture, an unstable atmosphere, and some shear. Heavy rainfall with any of the strongest storms may also result in flooding or flash flooding. SPC Day 1 Outlook seems plausible based on latest available short range and hi-res model guidance. For Saturday and Saturday night, another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to move across the region later that afternoon and evening. With plenty of moisture in place along with sufficient daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and sufficient shear values, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon along and east of the leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area. These storms should then move eastward across the forecast area later Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms may become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash flooding. 02 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values and areal coverage for Sunday and Monday as heights and mid level temperatures begin to rise across the southern high plains. Tuesday through Thursday appear to be dry areawide as upper level ridging builds over the region. The warmest day of the extended forecast periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region. NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario and were incorporated into the appropriate grids. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR and fair weather conditions will persist at all terminals to the mid afternoon hours. Then during the late afternoon a lines of thunderstorms have a high chance of forming in the western panhandles. These will move in a E to SE direction and will have a high chance of impacting all terminals during the late afternoon through evening. These thunderstorms may degrade conditions to MVFR with a low chance of becoming IFR or less. The is a moderate chance that ANY hail will occur and a low chance that severe hail of 1 in or greater will occur. Winds will be gusty with the passage of these thunderstorms with a low chance of 50+ kt gusts. Post passage of the thunderstorms conditions have a high chance or returning to VFR with a low chance of continued light rain showers. Another round of thunderstorms with a low chance of severe thunderstorms is expected for Saturday afternoon to evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 86 62 92 / 30 30 30 20 Beaver OK 59 88 61 90 / 50 30 40 20 Boise City OK 54 86 59 93 / 40 40 30 10 Borger TX 62 90 64 95 / 40 30 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 60 91 62 96 / 30 30 30 10 Canyon TX 59 87 61 92 / 30 30 40 20 Clarendon TX 60 84 61 87 / 30 20 40 30 Dalhart TX 55 87 58 93 / 40 30 30 10 Guymon OK 56 87 59 92 / 40 40 40 20 Hereford TX 59 89 61 94 / 30 30 30 20 Lipscomb TX 60 86 62 88 / 40 20 40 20 Pampa TX 60 86 63 89 / 30 30 40 20 Shamrock TX 61 85 62 86 / 30 20 40 30 Wellington TX 62 85 63 87 / 30 20 40 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98