336
FXUS64 KAMA 310957
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
457 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

As of this writing, the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms seen on radar is far less than this time Thursday
morning as it appears the atmosphere may be fairly well worked
over from the more widespread showers and storms that developed
Thursday afternoon and evening. That said, once the precipitation
from this morning either dissipates or moves out of the area, the
atmosphere should have sufficient time to recover from late this
morning onward through the afternoon hours. If that occurs, then
expect more showers and storms to form over the higher terrain of
southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico aided by the passage of
another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall
west northwest flow pattern. These showers and storms would then
track across the OK and TX Panhandles very late this afternoon
through tonight. A few storms will have the potential to become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards
given steep mid level lapse rates, plenty of available moisture,
an unstable atmosphere, and some shear. Heavy rainfall with any
of the strongest storms may also result in flooding or flash
flooding. SPC Day 1 Outlook seems plausible based on latest
available short range and hi-res model guidance.

For Saturday and Saturday night, another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is
expected to move across the region later that afternoon and
evening. With plenty of moisture in place along with sufficient
daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and
sufficient shear values, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon along and east of the
leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of
the forecast area. These storms should then move eastward across
the forecast area later Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms
may become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall
from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash
flooding.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values
and areal coverage for Sunday and Monday as heights and mid level
temperatures begin to rise across the southern high plains. Tuesday
through Thursday appear to be dry areawide as upper level ridging
builds over the region. The warmest day of the extended forecast
periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region.
NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario and were
incorporated into the appropriate grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, a second round of showers and thunderstorms
developing over the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle
may impact KAMA for the first few hours of this forecast, and have
included VCTS at that site until around 09Z. Otherwise, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop very late Friday
afternoon and Friday night across the area, and have included
mention at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA during this time period.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  60  86  62 /  20  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  82  59  88  61 /  20  50  30  40
Boise City OK              80  54  86  59 /  40  40  40  30
Borger TX                  85  62  90  64 /  20  40  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              85  60  91  62 /  20  30  30  30
Canyon TX                  82  59  87  61 /  20  30  30  40
Clarendon TX               80  60  84  61 /  30  30  20  40
Dalhart TX                 81  55  87  58 /  30  40  30  30
Guymon OK                  82  56  87  59 /  20  40  40  40
Hereford TX                84  59  89  61 /  20  30  30  30
Lipscomb TX                82  60  86  62 /  30  40  20  40
Pampa TX                   81  60  86  63 /  20  30  30  40
Shamrock TX                81  61  85  62 /  30  30  20  40
Wellington TX              82  62  85  63 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02