Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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523 FXUS64 KAMA 300551 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Shortwave trough will move across the Panhandles later this evening and overnight. This will set up the rounds of showers and storms that may move into the Panhandles tonight. Some storms already initiating off the NM mountains, but those storms are slow moving and likely to collapse as they move off the mountains. There may be a few storms that latch onto the shortwave and that will bring a chance for strong to severe storms overnight. Previous high res models were more bullish on expansive coverage of storms to include Amarillo, however latest 18z HRRR model has now backed off of this and is focused on storms in the northeast Panhandles overnight tonight, and will even linger in the east tomorrow morning. Another more stout shortwave trough is expected to move through on Thursday, and it appears that there will be just enough recovery for storms to develop along the dryline in the western Panhandles early Thursday afternoon (around 19z). Storms will likely start off supercellular along the dryline in the northwest Panhandles and move off the dryline to the southeast. They should congeal into a line segment, becoming mainly a wind threat. As the storms form, all hazards will be possible, but the tornado threat will be challenging as the storms near the dryline will have much higher LCL`s. As storms move to the southeast the LCL`s will lower and better dynamics for tornadoes would be present. That being said as the storms are expected to become more linear, and that will significantly limit that tornado threat for the evening, but not completely remove it (~2% chance). Storms should be out of the area around 10PM to midnight tomorrow night with a small chance for lingering showers storms on the back side overnight. Weber && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the Panhandles Friday through Sunday bringing rounds of showers and storms each day. Storms will have the potential to be severe, and heavy rain will be possible with any storms. The higher probabilities for excessive rainfall, and severe weather fall in the east, with lower chances in the central and western Panhandles. Sunday`s storms may only occur in the northwest as we start to build a ridge over the western Panhandles. By Monday and Tuesday temperatures will be back in the 90s to near 100 in some areas given the high pressure over the Panhandles. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 For the 06Z TAFs, thunderstorms may impact KGUY early in this forecast based on latest radar data and have included mention at that site. A brief period of MVFR cigs may develop at KAMA from around 12Z to 15Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop late Thursday afternoon into early evening, and have included a mention at each terminal site from around 21Z to 03Z. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 58 78 60 85 / 60 30 30 30 Beaver OK 57 79 57 86 / 90 30 30 30 Boise City OK 54 78 55 86 / 40 40 30 40 Borger TX 60 83 61 89 / 80 30 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 59 82 59 89 / 40 30 30 30 Canyon TX 57 78 58 85 / 50 30 20 30 Clarendon TX 59 77 60 81 / 80 50 30 30 Dalhart TX 53 79 54 87 / 40 30 30 30 Guymon OK 56 79 56 86 / 70 30 30 30 Hereford TX 57 81 58 87 / 40 30 30 30 Lipscomb TX 60 78 58 84 / 90 40 30 20 Pampa TX 59 78 60 83 / 80 40 30 30 Shamrock TX 59 79 60 82 / 80 50 30 30 Wellington TX 60 79 60 83 / 80 60 30 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...02