050
FXUS64 KAMA 240816
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
316 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

- Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along and ahead of a
  cold font. Lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain
  possible. Severe weather is not expected.

- No rain expected through Monday after today.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A southward moving cold front approaching the Palmer Divide will
move south across the Panhandles today.  The cold front is expected
to be moving across the southeast Texas Panhandle during peak
heating today.  This front may combine with just enough moisture to
help produce some showers and thunderstorms during the late
afternoon in the southeast Texas Panhandle. By evening, the front
should be south of the Texas Panhandle taking any precipitation with
it. A surface high will build into the Panhandles on Wednesday
bringing lighter winds.  On Wednesday an upper level low will pinch
off from the flow and become closed near Saint Louis.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The upper level low will become cutoff from the flow and will
meander around Arkansas or southeast Missouri in between 2 highs one
off the southeast U.S. coast and another over the southern Rockies
through the first part of the weekend.  The low will then finally
move off to the northeast Sunday and Monday.  The Panhandles will be
generally on the back side of the upper level low through the early
part of the weekend.  There may be some showers or thunderstorms
that clip the eastern Panhandles during the later part of this week
if a well-timed short wave trough moves across the area and it has
just enough moisture to work with.

High temperatures are expected to remain above average through the
rest of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Skies are expected to remain VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots
will turn to the north at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts behind
a cold front that will move through the TAF sites between 14Z and
18Z. Winds will then decrease with sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                86  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  79  50  81  48 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              78  49  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  54  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              85  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  86  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               89  55  83  54 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 79  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  80  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                87  52  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                83  52  83  51 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   85  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                90  56  84  53 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              91  56  85  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15