Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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728 FXUS64 KAMA 180931 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 431 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending closer to or even a little below normal in some locations for the weekend into early next week. A few severe thunderstorms are possible across the southeast half of the area late this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the area later Friday afternoon through Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Thunderstorms are still ongoing across the north central to northeast Panhandles as of 3 AM this morning, with some locations observing locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts around 40 mph. This activity will continue gradually moving eastward and eventually dissipate before sunrise as a minor upper level shortwave exits the region. Expect another warm and breezy day across the Panhandles this afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the west to mid 90s in the east, along with southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph. Synoptically, southwest flow aloft will remain in place atop an amplifying H500 ridge, stretching across the Lone Star State from the Rio Grande to the Red River. At the surface, a sharpening trough situated from an Amarillo to Perryton to Beaver line could act as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours. Although storms are possible, they`re no guarantee, as the Panhandles` location relative to the ridge could prove to be detrimental. Upper level support will be minimal, and many models (especially the latest runs of the NAM) note a pocket of dry air mixing to the sfc east of the trough, likely due to some subsidence aloft. If this factor plays out towards the NAM solution, attempts at elevated convection could struggle. But hi- res guidance continue to insist that lift in the low levels may just be enough to get storms going. Any storms that do develop could be strong to severe thanks to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~30kts of bulk shear available. Forecast soundings indicate "inverted-V" signatures promoting DCAPE values of ~1500 J/kg, favorable for damaging wind gusts, and some severe hail can`t be ruled out either. Overall, areas along and east of the sfc trough are looking at a 20-30% chance of scattered precipitation from approximately 3-10 PM this afternoon/evening. Models show the upper ridge further strengthening Thursday, leading to another warm, albeit notably less breezy September day. Winds will be 10-20 mph out of the west with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. A few spots in the southeast and Palo Duro Canyon could even have a 20-50% chance to reach the triple digit mark once again. Some CAMs hint at another round of showers and storms being plausible, but will stick with a dry forecast given the strength of the ridge currently indicated by numerical guidance. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The next upper level low pressure system is progged to dig southward to southern California by 12Z Friday. This particular feature is expected to translate eastward to near the four corners region by early Saturday afternoon, then head east northeast into the central plains by Sunday afternoon. This projected track remains consistent when comparing model runs of 12 to 24 hours ago. As this storm system approaches the area, the chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase again, mainly Friday afternoon through Saturday night. The chance for precipitation is expected to end by Sunday morning as this storm system heads into the central plains on a track north of the forecast area, with dry weather seen for Sunday and Monday. The latest medium range models continue in reasonable agreement with the track and speed of the upper level low pressure system and were accepted. Also, the NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible and reflect the above synoptic scale reasoning. Additional refinements to the long term periods are possible time gets closer. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers and storms continue near KDHT and KGUY, with a better chance of impacts for KGUY over the next couple hours. Most activity will remain north of KDHT, and storms should be east of all TAF sites after 09z. Winds will come down slightly tonight, but could be breezy at times out of the south. Breezy gusts of 20-30kts out of the southwest return at all sites during the afternoon hours. Storms will be possible again tomorrow evening, but highest confidence is east of all terminals. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 94 67 96 68 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 95 65 95 62 / 20 10 0 0 Boise City OK 88 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 98 68 100 66 / 20 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 94 62 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 93 65 95 66 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 95 68 97 69 / 20 20 0 0 Dalhart TX 88 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 93 59 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 93 63 96 66 / 10 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 96 69 98 67 / 20 20 0 0 Pampa TX 94 67 96 66 / 20 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 96 69 98 70 / 20 20 0 0 Wellington TX 97 70 100 71 / 20 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...38