Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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088 FXUS64 KAMA 241735 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front will move through the Panhandles this overnight period and clear the area by sunrise. Breezy winds are expected with the frontal passage as well as behind the front with gusts as high as 40 to 55 mph possible. These winds should weaken in the late morning hours as winds trend from northeasterly to southeasterly through the day as low-level moisture begins to creep back into the Panhandles. Saturday morning, some shallow low-level moisture should be spread out across the Panhandles with a dryline in eastern New Mexico. A shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles through the morning hours, rapidly deepening a surface low in southeastern Colorado to as low as around 990mb. This will result in a tightened surface pressure gradient, strengthening the winds across the Panhandles. The dryline will rapidly push through the Panhandles and into western Oklahoma through the afternoon. Relative humidity values will plummet behind the dryline as dry air mixes down from aloft and additional dry air gets advected in from the southwest. Expecting sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph, possibly up to 35 mph at times, with wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph, possibly up to 45 mph. This leads to concerns regarding elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the western half of the combined Panhandles, primarily the far western Panhandles. As such... have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 90s for almost the entire CWA, with some 95-100 degree readings expected along the Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, and the southeastern TX Panhandle. Winds will gradually weaken through night as winds trend toward northwesterly. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front will pull up stationary across the southwest Texas Panhandle on Sunday. Winds will remain generally in the 10 to 15 mph range out of the northwest, except for the southwest Texas Panhandle where winds will be out of the west at speeds of 15 to 20 mph. Another stronger cold front moves through the Panhandles Sunday night. The flow aloft then becomes more northwesterly or slightly zonal from Monday through Friday. This flow will have several minor disturbances that will move through it across the Panhandles. These disturbances will combine with low level moisture to bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the areas from Tuesday through Friday. The best chances of rain will generally be timed with the upper level disturbances. Plus, any mountain convection should head this way as well. High temperatures will generally be in the 80`s for much of the week after Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface winds continue to gust at all terminals through the early afternoon, with winds not expected to slow until the early evening. Expect these winds to slowly shift directions over the course of the day with all terminals expecting to have winds out of the south by late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold for the next 24 hours at all the terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday, winds are expected to strengthen through the morning into the afternoon hours to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph. Morning relative humidity values in the western combined Panhandles will start rather high, between 50% to 60%, but plummet through the morning hours and into the afternoon to a minimum of 5% to 10%. This produces RFTI values between 5 to 7 with localized pockets of 8 possible. As such... a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles for Saturday. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 54 94 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 51 95 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 49 89 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 56 98 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 55 96 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 53 94 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 96 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 49 91 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 50 94 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 53 95 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 53 92 58 89 / 0 10 10 0 Pampa TX 54 95 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 53 95 63 92 / 0 10 10 0 Wellington TX 54 98 64 94 / 0 10 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...11