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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230825
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
325 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

As of 2:30 AM this morning, latest satellite was placing the cold
front roughly just south of Goodland, Kansas moving somewhat
slowly south. Given its current location potential is present for
the front to arrive earlier than initially expected, especially
should winds begin to pick-up behind it like most model are
projecting. At it current rate, the front will likely be to Guymon
by 8 or 9 am this morning causing winds to shift to a more
northerly direction for the afternoon. In terms of temperature,
this front is relatively weak with the cool-dry air mass behind
the system not very deep, so expect minimal changes to
temperatures with most locations still in the 70s and 80s. On
another note, the early arrival of this front will also keep
chances of active weather down for the afternoon thanks to the
drier air capping the environment.

Rather chances for showers may be better during the overnight when
most of the models see surface winds shift easterly and 850mb flow
begins bring in warm air advection across the Panhandles. What
will limit these chances however, will be the drier air expected
to be advecting in above the lower-level moisture with most models
seeing a good westerly flow still present at 700mb clear into the
afternoon. Looking at model soundings throughout the day, this
drier air at the mid-levels will completely cap the Panhandles,
leaving most areas with low-level cloud decks and chances off
severe nearing zero. The only exception might be the eastern half
of the Panhandles, where there might be enough moisture present
for some showers and isolated thunderstorms to occur. However, the
cap may stay too strong to get anything beyond that. Regardless,
look for the expected cloud cover to help us cool off for the day
with most locations sitting in the 60s to low 70s.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Thursday will see the next weather system in the form of an trough
to closed low eject from the desert southwest to the southern
plains. In doing so this system will first set up a lee trough off
the front range that will gradually turn to a surface low. This
will setup a downslope west wind that will push dry air into the
southern plains. To the east of this moist air will will be pushed
into the southern plains by southerly winds. The confluence of
these two features will set up a dry line that will stretch N to S
across the panhandles. The current best probability of where this
will set up will be just to the east of Amarillo, Borger, and
Guymon. This placement remains uncertain as the small scale
features which will help dictate the placement are still fuzzy at
best this far out. The placement of the dryline will be key as
areas west of the dry line will see elevated to critical fire
conditions while areas along and east of the dryline will have a
chance for severe thunderstorms. For areas west of the dry line
gusty winds with the low RH coupled with still existing dry fuel
beds that haven`t fully greened up will allow for elevated to
critical fire weather conditions. As for the dry line and east
severe thunderstorms with all hazards of large hail, damaging
winds, and even tornadoes may occur. There is still some question
to the extent of the severe weather as while overall environmental
conditions are conducive for their formation there will be some
detractors that could limit the amount that form. This biggest
will be from the moisture itself as it is likely to form a cloud
shield that will help to limit solar heating. This shouldn`t
prevent all severe thunderstorms but may make it so there are more
isolated severe thunderstorms than what the environment without
the clouds would be able to form. Regardless of threat either the
severe weather or fire weather the evening will see the threat
diminish as the winds weaken in the west and the dry line surges
eastward to OK proper.

The weekend will see an active weather pattern continue to impact
the southern plains. On Friday the weather system that impacted
that area should have departed off the NE leaving dry air over the
panhandles. This would lead to a brief period of fair weather that
wont last as the next weather system will dive rapidly in the
desert southwest. The will set the stage for Saturday as this
system will then rapidly eject eastward arriving in the southern
plains. The overall dynamics associated with this system have the
potential to be very potent leading to severe thunderstorms. The
big question at least for the panhandles will be if there is any
moisture to fuel the formation of these thunderstorms. The dry
will still be present over the panhandles going into Saturday and
the wind direction ahead of this system looks to be a more SW flow
which would limit the return of gulf moisture. So it could be that
the atmosphere may be primed for severe thunderstorms but then
have no moisture to form them. However if the winds do manage to
push in sufficient moisture to the panhandles then this Saturday
may just be spicy. Sunday should see the weather system mostly
depart only a chance of wrap around moisture bringing showers.
However confidence in this occurring is low as there is an ever
increasing amount of uncertainty in the amount and placement of
moisture during the weekend.

Following the active weekend the pattern looks to favor a ridge
forming over the southern plains. This would bring dry, warmer,
and calm weather to the panhandles. This would set the stage for
the possible return of 90+ degree highs for next work week.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Winds continue to mix down to the surface at all terminals which
is allowing for southerly to southwesterly winds around 15 to 20
mph and gust nearing 30 mph. There is a small window after 9 to
10 UTC in which we do see winds weaken. However, a cold frontal
passage later this morning will see winds pick up once again out
of the north. Currently, latest TAF package has a rough timing of
the front with KGUY seeing it come in around 15Z, but potential
is present for the front come in an hour sooner. Regardless, all
terminals should remain VFR for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  50  69  55 /   0  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  76  47  67  49 /   0  20  30  20
Boise City OK              72  44  69  48 /   0  10  10   0
Borger TX                  83  52  71  55 /   0  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              83  50  73  54 /   0  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  84  50  70  53 /   0  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               84  53  66  55 /  10  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 77  44  70  48 /   0  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  75  45  67  48 /   0  20  10  10
Hereford TX                86  50  76  54 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                78  50  66  52 /   0  30  30  20
Pampa TX                   80  50  67  53 /   0  10  20  10
Shamrock TX                83  52  67  54 /  10  20  30  20
Wellington TX              85  55  68  55 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11