Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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491 FXUS64 KAMA 141742 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Abnormally warm temperatures continue today. Although there won`t be a downsloping aspect to the surface winds for much of the area unlike yesterday, 850mb temperatures look to be at least a few degrees warmer which should result in similar high temperatures for much of the Panhandles. A surface trough will mix eastward through the day, moving as far east as somewhere in the two easternmost stacks of counties. Still, there will be enough mid-level moisture for cumulus development in the late morning/afternoon hours even west of the surface trough. As temperatures reach the convective temperature, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible primarily in roughly the southeastern half of the CWA. Forecast soundings show a very well defined inverted-V thermodynamic profile suggesting the potential for any shower or thunderstorm to be capable of producing winds up to 55 mph, though a wind gust of 60 to 70 mph can`t be ruled out. Finally... Palo Duro Canyon will be close to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees), but will hold off given two factors: First... although the winds will mostly be favored for heat enhancement, it is getting later in the year thus there may not be as much heating within the Canyon due to the lower sun angle. Second... it appears quite favorable that cumulus clouds will develop in the late morning/afternoon hours, and there is a chance for thunderstorms potentially as early as 2 PM. Sunday... highs will be at least a couple degrees less hot across the Panhandles, but still well above average for mid-September. Dry air aloft, which was originally brought in to the Gulf of Mexico from the cyclonic flow around the low pressure stuck in the mid- South, will get advected into the Texas Panhandle today. This could inhibit the development of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, though there are some hints of just-in-time mid-level moisture moving in by the late afternoon. Although several CAMs suggest there is some potential for showers and thunderstorms, NBM gives less than 10% PoPs. Won`t be surprised if there is some activity Sunday afternoon, especially if mid-level moisture moves in quicker than currently anticipated, but will leave the very low NBM PoPs in for now. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely return to the forecast area Monday afternoon through Friday as hard to time minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall large scale western states upper level trof may impact the southern high plains. There may be a day or two within the long term periods in which better precipitation chances occur as well as a relative minimum on a couple days. Which days end up better for shower and thunderstorm development and which ones end up drier is rather problematic this far out in time. Medium range models and the associated ensembles are in better agreement with the overall upper level pattern but continue to disagree on the hard to time smaller scale disturbances embedded in the flow. Therefore, have continued to incorporate the NBM pops for all periods of the long term forecast, with further adjustments likely as time gets closer. Temperatures will slowly ease downward slightly from Monday through Friday, and this trend is reflected in the NBM temperatures. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Breezy, northerly winds continue for the next few hours at GUY. Otherwise, light and variable winds exist and the remaining two TAF sites. Later this evening winds will return to a more southerly flow, but they will still be light at all sites. Thunderstorms may generate near the AMA terminal this afternoon, but confidence is low for direct impacts to the airport. Storms should stay outside the 5 mile radius of the terminal, so mentions of showers and thunder have been omitted from the TAF. If the situation changes and thunderstorm coverage expands on top of AMA, amendments will become necessary down the line. No thunderstorm activity is expected at the other two sites today. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 64 96 64 93 / 10 10 10 10 Beaver OK 60 95 63 94 / 10 10 10 20 Boise City OK 57 93 60 89 / 10 10 10 10 Borger TX 63 100 65 97 / 10 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 63 96 63 94 / 0 10 20 10 Canyon TX 63 95 62 92 / 10 10 10 10 Clarendon TX 63 96 64 94 / 20 10 10 10 Dalhart TX 57 93 58 90 / 0 10 20 10 Guymon OK 57 96 62 93 / 0 10 10 10 Hereford TX 62 96 62 93 / 10 10 10 10 Lipscomb TX 63 96 66 94 / 20 10 10 10 Pampa TX 63 95 63 93 / 10 10 10 10 Shamrock TX 63 96 65 94 / 20 10 10 10 Wellington TX 65 98 66 96 / 20 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55