808
FXUS64 KAMA 050917
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
417 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A 591 decimeter high continues to setup over the southwest CONUS.
Given the projected placement of the ridge and a corresponding
low pressure system over the Great Lake Region, our CWA may be
under the influence of northwest flow from the leeside of the
Rocky Mountains starting Thursday.

Wednesday, stable air settles in and a calm forecast is projected
through the 24 hour period. 850 mb temperatures from short term
guidance suggest that highs today will range in the low to mid
90`s; however, based off of the temperatures met in the southern
Texas Panhandle yesterday the mid level values may be slightly
under done. Slight changes have been made for areas near the
Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon, and upper 90`s are
forecast for those zones today. The canyon itself may see a high
in the lower 100`s, but a Heat Advisory is not suspect to
necessitation at this time.

Thursday, surface winds are forecast to veer from south to north
in the late morning hours as a frontal boundary moves in. Storms
may form ahead of the front by the afternoon and evening hours.
With moisture return limited in the low and mid levels alongside
poor wind shear aloft due to the close proximity to the upper
high, concerns for storms to pulse to severe are low. Still, a
strong core or two cannot be ruled out and may pose a threat for
damaging winds and some hail. The storm mode will also favor
multicellular clusters with the aforementioned weak wind profiles.
Highs Thursday afternoon are still subject to change, since it
will be highly dependent on the position of the front and
afternoon convection. If the slower and drier solution occurs,
highs in the lower 100`s for the central and southern Texas
Panhandle are possible.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024


For Friday through Tuesday, upper level ridging prevails just to
the west over the western states while corresponding upper level
troffing evolves across the eastern states. This places our forecast
area in some semblance of northwest flow aloft, which is generally
a favorable pattern for steering storms eastward and southeastward
from the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New
Mexico. While medium range models are in basic agreement on the
overall pattern, they, along with ensemble members, differ some
on location of the ridge axis relative to the southern high plains
as well as how long the pattern lasts before potentially changing
again. Given the general predicted pattern, the threat for showers
and thunderstorms will continue across the OK and TX Panhandles
from Friday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are also
anticipated Friday and Saturday before a cold front tracks across
the area Saturday afternoon and evening, leading to cooler
temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Looking further ahead, medium
range models and associated ensemble members suggest the pattern
may become progressive just beyond Tuesday such that the upper
level ridge of high pressure will likely move eastward over the
plains states while an upper level trof of low pressure tracks
into the western states by the middle part of next week. If this
occurs, above normal temperatures may return while rain chances
diminish across the forecast area during that time frame. NBM
temperatures and pops fit the above scenario based on the overall
progged synoptic pattern and were included in all periods of the
long term forecast with little to no modifications to the grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

TAFs are VFR for the first time in a while for the 06Z period.
However, there is a potential caveat. A boundary from the east is
being pushed into the eastern Panhandles tonight and low clouds
and fog are expected to return. At this time, impacts are not
anticipated to affect the terminals this morning. The worst of the
low level activity should remain further east. Still, some
western development cannot be completely ruled out, especially if
cloud coverage increases. So amendments may become necessary down
the line. Otherwise, the rest of the day should be met with light
surface winds and mostly clear skies.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  68  97  65 /   0   0  20  30
Beaver OK                  95  66  90  63 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              94  62  89  60 /   0  10  10  20
Borger TX                 100  70 100  66 /   0   0  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              97  69 100  65 /   0   0  20  30
Canyon TX                  94  67  98  66 /   0   0  20  30
Clarendon TX               92  66  97  66 /   0   0  20  30
Dalhart TX                 94  64  94  61 /   0   0  10  30
Guymon OK                  95  64  90  61 /  10  10  10  20
Hereford TX                95  67 100  67 /   0   0  20  30
Lipscomb TX                93  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   95  68  95  65 /   0   0  20  30
Shamrock TX                91  66  97  66 /   0   0  10  30
Wellington TX              96  66  99  68 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55