919
FXUS64 KAMA 120505
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A north-northwest flow aloft could drag a couple of thunderstorms
into our far northwest late this afternoon and this evening.  Have
added a slight chance to these areas for this possibility.  Any
storms are expected to decrease with the setting sun.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a surface
trough from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas.  The northwest
flow is very light, so it is uncertain on whether storms can make
into our area.  For now have left them out.  Highs on Wednesday are
expected to be around or just above average with readings in the
upper 80`s to the upper 90`s.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A southern stream sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather
pattern late this week into the coming weekend, before H500 zonal
pattern returns next week to the southern High Plains.

To start on Thursday, a low amplitude H500 ridge enters the
western Panhandles. Could see a dirty ridge thunderstorm in the
northern Panhandles, but otherwise, mostly dry and warm
temperatures with H850 temps of +29 to +32C advecting into the
Panhandles. High temperatures on Thursday should be well above
average with many areas in the 100-104 degree range. If convective
temps are reached, aided by the perturbations on the ridge, more
areas could see more storms, and these storms could be strong to
severe, but this forecast will be more finely tuned as we get
closer.

Latest 11/12Z model and numerical guidance are in some accord that
a more organized h500 trough will traverse the Four Corners Region
and aid in lift for additional thunderstorm chances from west to
east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with better lift in the area where
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. High
temperatures on Friday will remain above average.

From Saturday into next week, a slowly progression from zonal to
SW H500 flow should keep the area mostly dry. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms formed off near orthogonal sfc boundaries and/or
anemic perturbations in the synoptic flow could aid in
thunderstorm genesis. Temperatures this coming weekend into early
next week will remain above average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the panhandles and at all
terminals for today. There may be an exception, if moisture is
sufficient still then fog may form during the mid morning hours
prior to sunrise. If this occurs and passes across a terminals
then conditions will degrade to IFR. Any fog that does form will
burn off rapidly with sunrise. Winds late this morning and
afternoon will be gusty from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  61  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  63  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              85  60  96  63 /  10  20  10   0
Borger TX                  87  64  96  68 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  62  95  66 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  60  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               79  61  87  64 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 85  60  95  62 /  10  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  86  61  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                83  61  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  62  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   82  62  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  62  88  66 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  63  89  66 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98