410
FXUS64 KAMA 111955
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A north-northwest flow aloft could drag a couple of thunderstorms
into our far northwest late this afternoon and this evening.  Have
added a slight chance to these areas for this possibility.  Any
storms are expected to decrease with the setting sun.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a surface
trough from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas.  The northwest
flow is very light, so it is uncertain on whether storms can make
into our area.  For now have left them out.  Highs on Wednesday are
expected to be around or just above average with readings in the
upper 80`s to the upper 90`s.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A southern stream sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather
pattern late this week into the coming weekend, before H500 zonal
pattern returns next week to the southern High Plains.

To start on Thursday, a low amplitude H500 ridge enters the
western Panhandles. Could see a dirty ridge thunderstorm in the
northern Panhandles, but otherwise, mostly dry and warm
temperatures with H850 temps of +29 to +32C advecting into the
Panhandles. High temperatures on Thursday should be well above
average with many areas in the 100-104 degree range. If convective
temps are reached, aided by the perturbations on the ridge, more
areas could see more storms, and these storms could be strong to
severe, but this forecast will be more finely tuned as we get
closer.

Latest 11/12Z model and numerical guidance are in some accord that
a more organized h500 trough will traverse the Four Corners Region
and aid in lift for additional thunderstorm chances from west to
east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with better lift in the area where
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. High
temperatures on Friday will remain above average.

From Saturday into next week, a slowly progression from zonal to
SW H500 flow should keep the area mostly dry. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms formed off near orthogonal sfc boundaries and/or
anemic perturbations in the synoptic flow could aid in
thunderstorm genesis. Temperatures this coming weekend into early
next week will remain above average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Southeast winds will generally remain around 10 knots or below
through tonight. Winds will then veer some and increase into the
10 to 16 knot range Wednesday morning. Skies are expected to
remain VFR. However, some MVFR cigs may try to make a run at the
AMA TAF site Wednesday morning, but confidence in them making it
is low, so have mentioned a 1500 foot scattered deck at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  90  64  97 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  96  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  96  62 100 /  10   0   0  10
Borger TX                  63  95  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  95  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  61  90  62  97 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  86  64  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 59  94  61 100 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  95  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                61  92  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  92  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   61  89  64  97 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  88  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              63  88  65  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...15