952
FXUS64 KAMA 080506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The daily chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
today and Saturday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The
primary hazards with any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts
and large hail. In addition to the thunderstorm threat, very hot
temperatures are expected, with widespread highs in the upper 90s
to just over 100 degrees.

So far this afternoon, temperatures have generally increased into
the 90s for most of the area with the exception being the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle where temperatures have remained in
the 80s due to showers/thunderstorms and lingering cloud cover.
Convection is now starting to develop over the higher terrain of
NM/CO and is starting to move east/southeast. As this convection
moves into the Panhandles, there should be enough instability for
strong to severe storms. Given drier low levels as the storms move
in, plenty of DCAPE is depicted by forecast soundings which
should lead to a damaging wind threat being the primary threat
with any severe thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance suggests the
activity should wane as it moves east towards the late evening
hours. However, given higher moisture content than most models
suggest at the time of this writing, cannot rule out storms
continuing longer than guidance suggests. The limiting factor may
be the convection from this morning, so model and observational
trends will need to be monitored going into the evening hours
tonight.

Cloud cover and thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday
morning. Clear skies are forecast and slightly better WAA at the
lower levels on Saturday, temperatures should be able to reach the
100s for at least the southern half of the area. Currently am not
expecting widespread heat advisory criteria, with the exception
being Palo Duro Canyon where temperatures are forecast to top out
around 107 during the afternoon hours. Plenty of moisture will
still be in place for another day of strong to severe storms. Very
similar synoptic and mesoscale features look to remain in place
on Saturday for damaging wind gusts and large hail to be the
primary hazards. Showers and thunderstorms may continue into the
early morning hours on Sunday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Daily chances for thunderstorms continues at the beginning of the
long term forecast. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will cool down temperatures
late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures look to
rebound back above average by mid to late next week.

On Sunday, H500 high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will slide
off to the east and have less of an influence over the Southern
High Plains. The axis of the H500 ridge will still be in place
over the area with a shortwave trough located to the southwest of
the forecast area by late Sunday afternoon. Some lingering showers
and storms may continue for a few hours on Sunday morning along
with potential low level clouds due to easterly upslope winds and
plenty of theta-e advection. Additionally, a weak cold front is
forecast to stall across the central or southern Texas Panhandle
and will be a focus for storms during the late afternoon through22 23 23 23 23 22 23 23 23 23 21 19 18 19 12 05 09 12 13 13 08
WSP 12 09 10 10 08 08 08 08 08 12 14 15 14 12 11the evening
hours. There are quite a few mesoscale features that will need to
be monitored over the coming days for the severe thunderstorm
threat for Sunday. If everything comes together, all hazards could
be in play on Sunday evening, especially as the low level jet
increases into the early evening hours. Additionally, very high
PWAT values are being depicted by forecast model guidance and any
training storms will lead to a flash flood threat. Storms will
likely continue Sunday night through Monday morning with
disturbances continuing to move across the Panhandles with all of
the moisture in place.

Showers and storms may continue on Monday afternoon and evening
and a few strong to severe storms will be possible if enough
day time heating can occur between rounds of precipitation. With
plenty of cloud cover and precipitation chances, temperatures are
expected to be cooler than average with highs in the 70s on
Monday. Additional showers and storms may continue on Tuesday
before ridging starts to move in back across the area by mid week
and temperatures look to increase back into the 90s by late next
week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Light overnight showers are currently over the panhandles but
these will dissipate over the coming hours with minimal to no
impacts to any TAF site. Another round of rain showers and
thunderstorms will form in the panhandles this afternoon and
evening which can impact all TAF sites. These should be high based
and shouldn`t lead to any reductions in flight category even if
they pass over a airfield. However these rain showers and
thunderstorms should be efficient wind producers capable of
strong to severe outflow winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               102  66  88  61 /  10  40  30  80
Beaver OK                  97  63  81  59 /  20  50  20  60
Boise City OK              94  59  78  57 /  30  50  40  70
Borger TX                 104  67  87  63 /  20  50  30  70
Boys Ranch TX             104  65  87  61 /  20  40  40  80
Canyon TX                 102  66  89  61 /  10  30  30  80
Clarendon TX              100  67  90  61 /  10  30  30  70
Dalhart TX                100  60  82  58 /  20  40  40  80
Guymon OK                  96  62  80  58 /  20  60  30  70
Hereford TX               103  66  90  61 /  10  30  30  80
Lipscomb TX                99  65  83  61 /  20  50  20  70
Pampa TX                  101  65  85  61 /  10  40  30  70
Shamrock TX               101  69  90  63 /   0  20  30  70
Wellington TX             102  70  95  63 /   0  20  20  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98