Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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924 FXUS64 KAMA 071444 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 944 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move east across the Panhandles early this morning. Storms should exit the area by mid day and have adjusted the forecast with this trend. Visible satellite depicts much more extensive cloud cover due to the ongoing convection than previous guidance suggested. Have greatly increased cloud cover through the rest of the morning extending into the early afternoon based on observational and hi-res model guidance trends. With the cloud cover being more pronounced, high temperatures today may not be as hot as expected, but have kept the highs the same for now and will continue to watch observations throughout the morning and will adjust if necessary later on today. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The upper level ridge continues it`s track to the southeast, thanks to support from the upper trough displacing the high further south. Thunderstorm chances still continue each day, but we await our next cold front before we find relief from our high temperatures. Today, high temperatures will reach the lower 100`s across the CWA. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon regarding temperatures at or above 105 degrees for extended periods of the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances will mostly be confined to the northern zones for the late afternoon and overnight time frame, a few of which could become strong and severe. Given the larger temperature/dewpoint spread forecasted for tomorrow, CAPE values will not be overly impressive (1,000-2,000 J/kg), but enough is there to support some organized storms. There should also be better wind profiles compared to yesterday, perhaps between 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse rates should also be extremely high, approaching 9.5 C/km rates in the mid levels. Similar to yesterday, damaging winds and some large hail are the primary threats, with a downburst or two also remaining in the realm of possibility given high LCL heights and DCAPE values. This activity will continue into the night, and storms should lose their severe potential as day time heating ends. The southern extend of the storm activity is still in question, as models diverge on where the system falls apart after they become outflow dominant. Current PoPs will keep Amarillo and parts surrounding out of the expected activity tonight, but there is still a low chance the system holds together long enough to travel south of the I-40 corridor. Tomorrow, very similar dynamics in the synoptic levels will retain most of the hazards and concerns mentioned previously. Another surge of 100 degree temperatures and thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight hours, some of which could also become severe. It is not until Sunday where we see more drastic mesoscale changes, (and some relief from the heat), as a cold front is expected to impact the High Plains by then. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Sunday will see continued active weather even after the passage of a cold front late on Saturday. Moisture will still sit across the panhandles that will continue to act as the fuel for the daily rain showers and thunderstorms. Post cold front the dynamics seem to decrease across the panhandles which should lead to a lower chance for organized severe weather. This doesn`t mean there wont be any severe weather just that it will be more pulse storm vs supercells. Moisture amounts and slow steering flows will allow for storms with high rain rates to form a sit for a long time over a single spot so flash flooding is a concern come this Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will be much cooler than Saturday with highs falling to the 70s and 80s. Monday will see continued rain and even thunderstorm activity. The big change will be that there is better odds than not that a secondary cold front or surge of cold air will pass across the panhandles. This will make it more likely that the rain becomes a steady stratiform rain of moderate intensity. Temperatures should cool even more with 70s across the panhandles and a small chance of 60s being seen for highs. Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge has better odds than not to push back across the southern plains becoming the more established feature for the panhandles. This should move most of the moisture out of the panhandles leading to a small period of dry weather. Under the ridge the temperatures are likely to see a warming trend with highs returning to the 90s by Wednesday. Thursday should see the ridge remain across the region with the highs reaching there peak for the latter portions of the week with highs back in the 100s. Some moisture moving back across the panhandles has a low chance of sparking of some high based rain showers and thunderstorms. Friday the ridge seems to be weakening as another pattern change may occur. For weather purposes Friday should mirror Thursday just slight cooler with most places peaking in the upper 90s. SH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 No major changes from the topics and concerns expressed from the 06Z TAF discussion. To recap, thunderstorms may be present at DHT and GUY this afternoon through the evening. A PROB30 group has been added to reflect these potential conditions, but the time frame has been adjusted an hour later. AMA has been omitted again from mentions of thunderstorms as appear less likely to hold together further south. It still cannot be completely ruled out at this time, but the odds are favored against it. Thunderstorms tonight would have to over perform to make it as far south as AMA. VFR conditions will still prevail through the rest of the period. Strong winds from the southwest will occur at all sites this afternoon. Sustained winds could reach up to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts at times. A small chance for low level wind shear also exist later tonight into the morning hours of Saturday. Confidence is not high enough to make mentions in the TAFs, but it is something we will watch for as those hours approach. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 101 73 101 64 / 0 20 10 40 Beaver OK 103 70 95 62 / 20 40 10 60 Boise City OK 101 63 92 59 / 40 20 30 60 Borger TX 104 75 104 65 / 10 30 10 50 Boys Ranch TX 104 72 103 65 / 10 30 10 50 Canyon TX 99 72 101 65 / 0 10 10 40 Clarendon TX 98 73 100 66 / 10 10 10 30 Dalhart TX 102 65 97 61 / 20 30 20 50 Guymon OK 103 66 95 61 / 30 40 10 60 Hereford TX 101 71 102 65 / 0 10 10 40 Lipscomb TX 99 72 100 65 / 20 30 10 50 Pampa TX 100 74 100 64 / 10 20 10 50 Shamrock TX 99 73 100 67 / 20 20 0 30 Wellington TX 100 73 102 70 / 20 10 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...55