Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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186 FXUS64 KAMA 180534 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Severe thunderstorms possible in the west. Damaging winds and perhaps quarter size hail. Heavy rain. - Isolated severe storms possible in the southeast Wednesday afternoon. - More thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Thunderstorms have developed across the mountains of New Mexico early this afternoon. These storms should continue to increase in coverage as the lift from the base of the upper level positively tilted trough moves northeast across eastern New Mexico atop a low level moist airmass. A line of thunderstorms is expected to approach the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by late this afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe as they cross over into the western Panhandles with damaging winds the main threat. Some hailstones to the size of quarters will also be possible. As the storms move toward the central Panhandles they are expected to weaken as the upper level lift from the trough will be moving northeast into Kansas and instability will be weakening. However, storms could linger all the way across the eastern Panhandles late tonight. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon are expected to decrease some this evening. However, a low level jet may keep some areas gusting through much of the night even outside of thunderstorms. On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to lie across the southeast Texas Panhandle. This trough may become a focus for additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon into the evening. Again, a storm or two may become severe with damaging winds the main thereat given the adequate shear and instability. && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Thursday remains dry at this time as a ridge pokes up over Texas ahead of the next upper level low moving into California. Showers and thunderstorms should return to the Panhandles Friday and Saturday ahead and along with the passage of this upper low as it moves through the 4-corners region and out into northwest Kansas by Saturday night. A cold front should push through the Panhandles Saturday night behind this system effectively shutting off the rain for Sunday and Monday. Highs through Friday are expected to remain above average. Highs may remain around average on Saturday depending on how cloudy and rainy it ends up being. Sunday and Monday should then be below average behind the cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers and storms continue near KDHT and KGUY, with a better chance of impacts for KGUY over the next couple hours. Most activity will remain north of KDHT, and storms should be east of all TAF sites after 09z. Winds will come down slightly tonight, but could be breezy at times out of the south. Breezy gusts of 20-30kts out of the southwest return at all sites during the afternoon hours. Storms will be possible again tomorrow evening, but highest confidence is east of all terminals. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 93 67 95 69 / 20 0 0 0 Beaver OK 95 66 95 66 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 88 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 98 68 100 70 / 20 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 93 63 95 66 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 92 65 94 67 / 20 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 95 68 97 70 / 20 20 0 0 Dalhart TX 88 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 92 58 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 93 63 96 67 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 95 69 98 69 / 20 20 0 0 Pampa TX 93 68 96 69 / 20 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 95 68 98 70 / 20 20 0 0 Wellington TX 98 70 100 71 / 20 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...38