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FXUS64 KAMA 121710 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A high pressure system is pushing across the panhandles becoming
the dominate feature across the southern plains. This will keep
drier air over the panhandles today leading to fair weather.
There is a small exception this morning as moisture at the surface
is proving sufficient to cause some patchy fog. This fog should be
fairly shallow and quickly evaporate after sunrise.

Thursday may see a small shift in the fair weather as some mid
level moisture pushes across the panhandles. This small amount of
moisture can spark off a few isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms. Being that this is mid level moisture the bases of
any rain shower or thunderstorm would be very high and sitting
a top a large sub cloud dry layer. This would make it more likely
that instead of any meaningful rainfall these would cause gusty
downbursts instead.

Temperatures under the high pressure system will be on the rise
with highs today in the 80s to 90s. These will increase for
Thursday with highs in the 90s to 100s. In fact the warmest spots
such as the Canadian River valley and Palo Duro Canyon will get
close to Heat Advisory levels. Even if it doesn`t get that hot it
will still be best to practise heat safety as heat illness can
still occur.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The long-term period begins Friday morning when an upper-level
ridge will be set up over the Panhandles. Friday looks to be
another hot day across the area, though not as hot as Thursday as
temperatures will reach into the 90s. An upper-level trough begins
to approach the Panhandles Friday evening and thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west in New Mexico in the higher
terrain. Forcing associated with the trough should help maintain a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through Friday night across
the Panhandles, but the higher chances are more in the western
Panhandles. Not expecting much more than elevated thunderstorms
given limited instability.

Saturday looks a few degrees cooler than Friday, but still
looking at highs in the low to mid-90s across the area. With the
current timing of the trough, there is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the northeastern Panhandles Saturday
evening as the upper-level trough moves away. Again, instability
looks limited thus not expecting anything more than elevated
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively high PWATs
around 1.30" to 1.60" and high freezing levels which would favor
heavy rain.

Temperatures warm back up to the mid to upper-90s on Sunday as an
upper-level trough dips into the Western US. The trough moves
eastward Monday and lee cyclogenesis occurs in northeastern
Colorado, creating a surface low somewhere in the 980mb-990mb range.
This creates a steep surface pressure gradient across the region,
making for a breezy Monday. Chances for rain do not look promising
as the track of the trough (and any chance for meaningful forcing
mechanisms) is well to the north of the Panhandles. Depending on how
the trough departs, there is a low chance that the favorable forcing
associated with being in the right entrance region of the jet streak
could provide enough forcing for a shower or thunderstorm in the
northern Panhandles Monday night.

Looking at another day with highs in the 90s for Tuesday as
southwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate. Subtle shortwaves in
the flow aloft may provide enough forcing for a chance for
thunderstorms through Tuesday night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Skies are expected to remain VFR. South and southwest winds at
around 15 knots with higher gusts will tend to veer some this
evening and decrease to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66 101  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  68 103  67  99 /   0   0  20   0
Boise City OK              64 103  64  96 /  10  10  10  30
Borger TX                  69 103  70  99 /   0   0  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              67 103  69  98 /   0   0  20  10
Canyon TX                  65 100  67  94 /   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               64  96  67  92 /   0   0  10   0
Dalhart TX                 63 102  64  96 /   0  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  66 103  65  97 /   0  10  20  10
Hereford TX                66 101  67  95 /   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                67 102  68  97 /   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   66 100  68  94 /   0   0  10   0
Shamrock TX                66  97  67  94 /   0   0  10   0
Wellington TX              66  98  68  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15