Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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844 FXUS63 KAPX 171826 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free through the end of the week, leading to elevated fire danger at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rather benign and mundane pattern through Wednesday with large scale ridging aloft and sfc high pressure just to the east. Strong low level heating, deep mixing, and dry sfc conditions will result in high fire danger, however. Primary Forecast Concerns: Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure to the east will keep northern Michigan dry tonight into Wednesday. Thus, expect a typically cooler night across low spots among hilly terrain and within river valleys as cool air drains and pools in these locations. Could have isolated spots of fog consequently. Anomalous high pressure correlates to anomalous warmth, with temperatures remaining in the 80s on Wednesday. Dry and warm low levels, deep mixing, and dry vegetation will result in high fire danger on Wednesday. Displaced pressure gradient to the west and thus light winds over northern Michigan preclude any more significant fire weather concerns, although erratic fire behavior would be possible given the aforementioned variables, in a conditional sense. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The pattern remains pretty consistent with high pressure situated overhead with a few low pressure systems tracking around the Northwoods. Warm temperatures, light winds, and hazy skies will persist through at least Thursday. Temperatures through the long- term will stay above normal (80s) until possibly next week slightly cooler (70s) look to try and creep into the area. Cloud cover will begin to fill in Friday as the next chances for rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday. With the atmosphere very dry from the lack of moisture brought into the region, anything that falls Friday night into Saturday is not expected to amount to much, and could potentially just end up being virga for most areas. Guidance continues to struggle with the next chances for precipitation with some hinting at precipitation Saturday and some Sunday/ Monday. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Mainly VFR through the period, although isolated pockets of FG will be possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially across southeast portions of northern lower Michigan. Winds light AOB 5 to 10KTs through Wednesday, direction 090-150. Clouds SKC- SCT250 generally. Dry conditions persist. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JLD