Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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016 FXUS63 KAPX 051334 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 934 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and storms today. Severe storms are not expected at this time. - Unsettled weather will likely continue through next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Cold front is crossing western upper MI and eastern WI this morning, and remains on schedule to cross northern MI thru mid- evening. Clouds/showers are increasing here as the front approaches. Observed MuCape on the 12Z APX sounding was near 800j/kg, though with CIN of 35-40. Diurnal heating will not be strong today, but even just partial heating, combined with cooling aloft, will help produce small amounts of surface-based Cape. Deep shear is unimpressive in the warm sector (0-6km bulk shear up to 25kt). Airmass is moist (observed Pwat 1.30"), so wet microbursts could contribute to locally gusty winds. TVC had an unimpressive outflow boundary give a 29kt gust, so this backs up the gusty winds idea. Showers and embedded tstorms will continue, with a back edge likely developing on the front itself. Nw lower MI will see partial clearing by very early evening behind the front, likely in time to see some late-day sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Amplified ridging will be pushed east of the Great Lakes as strong troughing pivots overhead today and tonight. The main wave and associated height falls look to spread overhead by this afternoon as the associated jet max punches into the region this evening/tonight. Meanwhile, the surface cyclone supported by strong forcing aloft will spin across south/central Canada through the period as an attendant cold front swings across northern Michigan this afternoon/evening. Forecast Details: Widespread showers/storms today -- Showers and isolated storms will continue to spread from SW to NE across the area this morning as northward warm, moist advection persists. As was well discussed by the previous forecaster, an impressively moist airmass in place today will support the potential for locally heavy rainfall. PWAT values in the ballpark of 1.75" across the guidance suite would exceed both the max moving average and daily max values on sounding climatology. While relatively faster storm motions may help limit flash flooding potential, showers/storms are expected to work over areas in Manistee county that received around 2"+ of rainfall yesterday -- potentially creating a locally higher flooding threat across these areas. Otherwise, nearly unidirectional SSW flow with moist profiles amidst forcing aloft will support showers/storms along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front across most of northern Michigan through this afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where any stronger storms track. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Otherwise, a brief lull in rain chances is anticipated later this afternoon into this evening as storms clear from west to east ahead of additional shower chances later tonight. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s are anticipated with cooler lows in the low 50s in store tonight after the frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Large and fairly deep upper level closed low will be sliding towards the Great Lakes region Thursday from western Ontario CA. There are a few model discrepancies with the exact track of the upper lows center, however most guidance consistently brings the center (or a part of the center) over the U.P. by Thursday midday. A few waves will likely rotate around the low, reinforcing clouds, chances for intermittent light rain, and cooler temperatures. Friday, the center of the closed low will likely have reached eastern Ontario/Lk Huron. Northwest winds near the surface will move in cooler air, leading to decent chances for high temperatures Friday being at or below 60. Clouds and more intermittent light rain Friday will help to keep that cooler airmass cool. Starting Saturday, uncertainty grows significantly. The upper level low will likely be large enough to continue to influence northern MI, continuing the wet and cool trend through the weekend. Upper level ridging is hinted at near the end of the period (mid week next week), and could return clear skies, warmth, and drier weather. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence lies in unsettled weather continuing through next week for most of northern MI. The uncertainty rests in details, when the precip will move in and how cool temperatures will get. This is due to many little features needing to play out ahead of the features in the longer term. However, a more predominate parent cut off low will help keep the overall trend unsettled. Nothing really scours out moisture, ensembles show an average PW of 0.7" - 0.8" for the whole long term period. This leads to rain amounts generally being light over the longer term. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 637 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread from SW to NE across northern Michigan into this evening. A brief break in rain chances is anticipated later this evening before chances return again tonight. MVFR to IFR CIGs are anticipated for a time this morning into this evening across parts of the area, particularly northwest lower and eastern upper. Temporary drops to MVFR VSBYs are also possible under heavier showers/storms. South winds around 10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts will turn to west winds later this afternoon/evening as a cold front swings through the area. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...DJC