074
FXUS63 KAPX 272305
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
705 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures tonight.

- Rain/storms Friday night into Saturday; Watching potential
  for stronger storms Saturday.

- Periods of unsettled weather next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging continues to build across the Plains and upper Midwest as
troughing slides towards the northeast. Surface high pressure
building overhead will eventually track east out of the region by
Friday as a shortwave trough tracks towards the Great Lakes Region
for the weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Another beautiful night is in store for Northern Michigan with
nighttime lows expected to be in the low 50s for interior locations,
and in the mid 50s for coastal locations. Cloud coverage will
increase as the night goes on in response to the aformentioned
shortwave trough. North winds will shift Southeast after midnight
and increase through the day Friday with winds 5 to 10 mph and gusts
at times up to 15 to 20 mph. Rain showers will become likely late
Friday evening/ night as widespread rain moves west to east across
the forecast area into the weekend. Temperatures on Friday will be
warmer with southerly winds bringing warmer air into the region,
making highs in the low to mid 70s for Northern lower and high 60s
across the EUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis over the western US...with some influence on our weather
this morning, allowing for a 1018mb surface high over WI. Pesky
trough axis from the last couple days finally moving on
over...hanging out in New England attm...with primarily dry, cool
advection from the north in its wake beneath better
subsidence...though some weak height falls still noted overhead
attm. Primary activity across the CONUS well to our south/southeast,
with a lingering BCZ trapping the bulk of the better moisture down
there...though next item on the agenda is a decent occluded system
moving across western North America. Warm front stretching down into
the lee of the Rockies along the nose of a 30-40kt LLJ; do see an
uptick in pwats across the central Plains with this, and some better
lapse rates aloft in its wake over the higher terrain.

Ridge axis to continue to slip overhead into Friday, with increasing
warm advection expected through the day Friday into Friday
evening...when rain chances should really start to ramp up. System
moves in rather quickly Friday night, but ends up being somewhat
slower to leave for Saturday and beyond. Still...after an initial
round of rain/storms in the morning, think a second round of showery
activity should slip in during the late afternoon/evening from the
northwest as a reinforcing punch of PV slips in. Cooler in the wake
of this Sunday as high pressure again attempts to move in...and may
be briefly successful...though there are already signals for a
return to troughiness for the mid-to-latter half of the upcoming
week (unfortunately).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/storms Friday night into Saturday...Still looking at warm
advection rain with embedded thunder moving in from the west late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Though we do have some decent
deep-layer shear potential...think we will be lacking instability
overall, at least initially. However...think there is still a good
shot at another round of soaking rains, especially along and west of
I-75 and across the EUP, where rain is most likely to move in first
late Friday. Think there could be a more southerly round of activity
Friday that could potentially suck some of the better moisture away
from our activity Friday evening/night...but still think we will be
looking at some rain, with the primary focus of heavier rain over
the EUP closer to the better forcing with the warm front aloft (most
likely to set up over Canada).

Watching potential for stronger storms Saturday...Going into
Saturday morning...we should be firmly ensconced in the warm sector
with abundant moisture hanging on from Friday...a generally
favorable environment with a cold front moving into the region.
Additionally, still have concerns that stability as a whole will be
weakening as steeper lapse rates aloft advect in with time going
into Saturday morning. Still watching for a pesky low/mid-layer
(between 925 and 800mb-ish) of more stable air, which could
certainly put a cap on development of any deeper activity,
particularly if it is stronger and forcing is a bit on the weaker
side. For now, however...still have concerns for Saturday, perhaps
even as early as Saturday morning...before lower-levels stabilize.
It again appears this could be one of those situations where the low-
level moisture actually aids in destabilization, such that even a
few degrees of warmth (from even a scattered/broken cloud deck)
could break open the cap and tap into the less stable air
aloft...particularly with some potential for increased forcing from
the incoming SW-NE oriented front and attendant PV niblet aloft
(though the bulk of the forcing from this could end up focusing over
the EUP more than NLP). Deep layer shear appears best along and
behind the front, which could preclude better storm
organization...particularly with potential for better
destabilization and low-level shear over NE Lower...but will
certainly be something to keep an eye on as we go into one of the
more active summer weekends for northern Michigan. Primary threat(s)
could end up being gusty winds and/or hail, given the potential for
mid-level dry air to enhance cold pool development...in addition to
the potential for steeper lapse rates aloft. Still...with the low-
level moisture around, as well as knowing we`ll be in the warm
sector of this system...can`t help but wonder about the potential
for a rogue spin-up if this idea does end up coming to fruition.
Primary focus for all of this should be during the early part of the
day across northern Lower, with less certainty on how things will
evolve with the secondary trough swinging in during the afternoon.

Periods of Unsettled Weather Next Week...While it`s still a ways
out, and a lot could change between now and then, there are some
decent signals for increased southwesterly flow into the Upper
Midwest going into early/mid-week next week. Will have to keep an
eye on this as we approach the upcoming holiday week/extended
holiday weekend...given that this setup suggests potential for
periods of active weather that could put a damper on people`s plans.
Not saying right now that it will totally be a washout, because
there are still a lot of details to sort out...but will be something
to monitor, particularly for any outdoor/remote-outdoor plans. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure center will continue to push east of Michigan
tonight. Meanwhile...developing low pressure over the Northern
Plains will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Mid/high level moisture/clouds will steadily increase from west
to east tonight into Friday morning...with chances of showers
increasing across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan Friday
afternoon. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become
southerly and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Friday with some
higher gusts expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MLR