Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
182 FXUS63 KAPX 280345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain gradually diminishing tonight. - Chance for showers and a few t-storms Tuesday. - Potential for frost Wednesday and Thursday nights? && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Pattern/synopsis: 995mb low pressure is east of Georgian Bay, with a sharp trof lingering back across central lower MI, just south of M-55. Northerly surface winds are in place north of the trof, westerly to the south. Widespread rain has been occurring over most of the forecast area today, though exceptions in the north (eastern upper MI) and far south, where coverage and intensity have been less. Forecast: Low pressure exits ne across central Quebec tonight, and the lingering surface trof will pivot southward. As this happens, drier air will make inroads from the north. Rain shield has already seen some erosion along the northern edge, and that will continue, though there could still be a stray rain shower to drop southward out of Ontario tonight. Overall, precip will at least partially diminish in eastern upper and part of nw lower MI this evening (w of TVC-CAD), and in n central lower MI overnight. Chancy pops linger in ne lower MI all the way until morning. Have removed all mention of thunder. Lows tonight mid 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday, a clipper-type shortwave moves se-ward toward western Superior. This will temporarily halt the drying trend. Eastern upper MI may see enough clearing for partly sunny skies, at least at times. But we`ll see more clouds than sun south of the Bridge. Still, meager late-May heating thru the clouds will support diurnal destabilization, especially as cooler temps arrive aloft. Expect places near Saginaw Bay to reach 300-400j/kg of MlCape, with smaller values elsewhere. A chance for showers lingers in ne lower MI in the morning. Then, showers should see some regeneration in the afternoon, especially in the se. In addition, showers that pop in ne WI could move toward nw lower MI as we head toward evening. A mention of afternoon thunder in the far se, where perhaps some small hail will be possible in the coolish airmass. Highs upper 50s far north to around 70f ne lower MI. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current shortwave troughing over the Great Lakes region will slowly progress towards the east coast at the start of the forecast period. Elongated ridging near the Pacific begins to build over the West Coast and makes it way towards the CWA by the Wednesday evening time frame. Quiet weather will persist for the first half of the long term ahead of upstream toughing delivering additional chances of showers next weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: High pressure builds at the start of the long term period resulting in quiet weather through the work week: Current mid- level troughing will begin to move to the east coast Wednesday night. A few lingering showers will remain in the area Tuesday Evening as lingering bits of moisture hang around the CWA. Conditions dry out this Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most areas. There is some potential of frost Wednesday and Thursday night as clear skies and dew points near freezing could allow radiational cooling to drop overnight lows into the 30s, but the main threat still primarily remains in interior locations. Chances of precipitation return this weekend. No heavy rainfall or severe weather expected at this time: Mid-level troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress towards the CWA this weekend while weakening. Aforementioned troughing is expected to lift as it traverses the midwest, resulting in a weakening frontal boundary as it crosses the CWA. Scattered showers can be expected at times Saturday and Sunday, but no heavy precipitation or severe weather appears likely at this time due to the unorganized dynamics of the system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Ongoing rain across the Tip of the Mitt and northeast lower will continue to work southeast across the area tonight, and is expected to exit Tuesday morning. CIGs have lifted over the last several hours, and VFR conditions are anticipated across most TAF sites through the issuance period. The exception may be APN where IFR/MVFR CIGs may linger for a few hours after 06Z. Otherwise, northwest winds will gradually increase Tuesday morning into the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC