312
FXUS63 KAPX 261847
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
247 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a few showers/storms east of I-75 this
  afternoon/evening.

- Rain/storms late Friday into Saturday.

- Chilly night again Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A shortwave trough will continue to swing across the Great Lakes
through the afternoon/evening. In conjunction with a lingering front
draped across the lower peninsula and the aformentioned shortwave,
enough forcing will be available for chances of showers/storms for
areas east of I-75. Some showers have already begun to pop up in
this area early this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds in
from the northern Great Plains/central Canada into the Great Lakes
by Thursday morning promoting less active and dryer weather.


PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Chance Showers/Storms this Afternoon/Evening: Rain/thunder chances
should mainly be confined east of I-75, especially areas closer to
the Lake Huron shoreline. Severe storms are not anticipated with any
activity that develops today. Clouds will continue to decrease from
west to east as dryer air works into the Great Lakes Region due to
high pressure building overhead. Winds will decrease through the
night becoming calm by midnight as cloud cover also decreases. With
this, a seasonably cool night is expected with temperatures in the
mid 40s for many interior areas and 50s for those closer to the
lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Amplified pattern across North America...with upper low over the
Aleutians, another trough along the Pacific coast (with a potent
niblet swinging into the PacNW attm), ridging over the SW US up into
the Canadian Rockies...and another trough axis over the Upper Great
Lakes. Dry 1022mb surface high aiding in dry advection into the
Upper Great Lakes...in the wake of a PV niblet dropping over Lake
Superior, and a secondary cold front stretching across Manitoba and
Ontario...with 850mb temps in the single digits. Front from
yesterday hanging up just to our south, stretching from the Lower
Great Lakes into the central Plains...with the bulk of the deeper
moisture remaining trapped along and south of this, where better
convective activity from last night continues to diminish.

Expecting current trough axis to meander out...with incoming
shortwave ridging and attendant surface high pressure in its wake
for tonight and Thursday. Return flow finally begins to pick up
again Friday...with increasing lift and moisture ahead of another
clipper system progged to slide through the Upper Midwest...bringing
another round of unsettled/wet activity to the Great Lakes to wrap
up the work week, and start the upcoming weekend. Cold front slips
through Saturday...with a much cooler day (similar to today,
perhaps) on tap for Sunday, as high pressure again settles into the
Great Lakes for the start of next week. This, too, should be
relatively short lived, with another system currently looking to
develop over the central US going into midweek of next week.
Assuming things progress as expected...or at least, somewhat similar
to what is currently expected...think the pattern of unsettled
weather every few days should hang on (for better or worse) into the
fourth of July, though details remain unclear on how this occurs. Be
sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you have fourth of July plans
up here in northern Michigan`s beautiful Great Outdoors!

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/storms late Friday into Saturday...

Setup for late Friday afternoon into Friday night appears favorable
for warm advection rain, at the very least...though less certain on
how unstable we will be, which could preclude thunder chances (for
the most part). Pwats look to approach 1.5in again, which certainly
would be adequate to produce good rainfall, particularly noting warm
cloud layers should reach up towards 3km again, reasonably favoring
more efficient warm rain processes.

Saturday, on the other hand, looks a little more intriguing,
particularly depending on fropa timing...as we should be in the warm
sector of this system ahead of an approaching cold front. While
signals aren`t overly impressive attm...does appear we could have
sufficient bulk shear aloft to work with, particularly if surface
fropa ends up coinciding with peak heating/diurnal heating. It
appears we should remain fairly moist/saturated in the boundary
layer Saturday into Saturday morning, which should keep some clouds
around...though not a sure bet that it will remain totally cloudy.
Perhaps somewhat similarly to last weekend, it may not take very
much heating to boost instability...particularly with some weaker
stability slipping in ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon.
Again...think the front will be one of the more determining factors
with this...as there should be a reasonably stable layer to contend
with in the lower levels...so will need something to help us achieve
any elevated instability that develops.

Chilly night again Sunday night...
Similar to the current situation, 850mb temps fall Sunday into the
single digits again with high pressure moving overhead. Assuming
highs again only reach into the upper 60s...would be another
situation where we end up with overnight lows dropping into the 40s,
naturally...going into the start of July. Will be something to keep
half an eye on as we go forward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Cloud coverage will decrease throughout the day promoting mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions. Chances for showers/storms are
possible this afternoon across northeast lower, however, they are
not expected to impact TAF sites. Northwest winds 5-10 kts gusting
to 15-20 kts will continue into this evening before decreasing to 0-
5 kts for tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...NSC