199
FXUS63 KAPX 111426
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1026 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers tonight.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Some severe
  storm potential.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Inherited forecast looks to be in good shape with mostly sunny skies
and light winds today. Higher level clouds will begin to fill in
later this evening into tonight giving way to slight chances for
light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Canada originated high pressure and its attendant light winds, clear
skies, and dry air has resulted in quite the cool night across
northern Michigan, with several of our traditional colder interior
locations already making a run into the 30s. Driver behind this
surface high is sharp mid/upper level ridge building steadily east
into the western Great Lakes...with troughing quick on its heels
across the northern Plains into the prairie lands of southern
Canada. Cold front right on this ridge/trough interface sliding east
into the upper Mississippi Valley...with just enough attendant
forcing and moisture advection to kick off an area of showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms along it.

Overall flow regime remains rather progressive, with mid level
ridging building through and east of northern Michigan today and
tonight, with upstream shortwave trough and its weakening cold front
moving into the western Great Lakes tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any light shower potential
tonight.

Details:

Expect temperatures to rebound quickly this morning, with plenty of
sunshine and developing light return flow. Increasing high clouds
will begin to filter out the sunshine some this afternoon, but still
expecting afternoon temperatures to approach more normal levels in
the lower and middle 70s. While clouds will continue to increase
heading through tonight, the threat for showers is much less
certain. Decaying forcing through the vertical (cold front
essentially begins to wash out, with best mid level support
detaching east of the front with time), and steady loss of deep
layer moisture convergence definitely negates any widespread and
organized shower activity. Suppose some widely scattered and light
showers remain possible, but definitely feel most of the night and
much of the area will remain dry. Definitely a milder night, with
those clouds and maintenance of light south winds only allowing
temperatures to drop into the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Any lingering rain chances will be
continuing east and exiting the state Wednesday morning. Skies will
be clearing throughout the day. Light winds and warm temperatures
Wednesday. A surface low over southern Ontario CA will be moving
over Lk Superior later Wednesday, giving way to some rain chances
over eastern upper (and possibly a few lightning strikes). Decent
low level moisture will advect in from the west early Thursday,
increasing surface dew points into the 60s. Thursday will likely
feel like a warm and humid day. Generally zonal flow aloft with an
with a shortwave passing to the north. Shower and storm chances
exist for the afternoon and evening hours. Possible post-frontal
rain for Friday, as temperatures cool 5 to 10 degrees. Drying and
warming trend for the weekend, with temperatures possibly reaching
into the 90s for northern lower by early next week.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: There are a few areas of
uncertainty for Thursday`s storm potential. Run to run consistency
has been better for storms forming over southern MN, however slight
differences exist for the surface feature over southern Ontario CA.
The latest 00Z run wants to strengthen the surface low over south
central Ontario and move a cold front through from the
north/northeast Thursday afternoon/evening. Global models also
depict slight differences in the path of the upper level shortwave.
Lastly, there are differences in timing of the surface front (some
guidance moves it through later Thursday). More confidence lies in
the moisture availability and having at least some present shear in
the environment. Model soundings depict a defined warm nose around 3-
4 kft as well, which would make most of the instability conditional
(more requiring a boundary to give it lift). We will continue to
watch how guidance trends (especially once CAMs start to resolve
this timeframe).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Clouds will slowly increase and lower this afternoon and
tonight, but trends continue to support the maintenance of VFR
conditions through the period. Small chances for light showers
tonight, but overall coverage and intensity will be minimal.
Light winds through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NSC
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB/MLR