Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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278 FXUS63 KAPX 090345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances of showers linger overnight into Sunday. - High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. - Next chance of rain and some thunder Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern Michigan. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Low pressure centered along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border will continue to slowly push eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile...another upper level trough axis will swing into the Western Great Lakes overnight...helping to perpetuate small chances of showers across our CWA into Sunday. All thunder has ended with loss of diurnal instability...and do not expect any additional thunder overnight. Expect another cool night across our Northwoods with overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A cutoff upper level low will continue to reside across the region into tonight before slowly lifting out of the area Sunday. Upper level disturbances embedded in the upper low will continue to bring chances for showers. APX and surrounding radars along with surface observations indicates that showers continue to overspread northern Michigan. This activity is expected to move across the region through early evening. An embedded rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out. Hi/resolution guidance then has various possibilities tonight with the best chance of lingering showers across eastern upper and far northern lower. The next disturbance Sunday appears to be moisture starved so only expecting isolated showers and sprinkles. Another push of cooler air along with a decent amount of cloud cover will likely limit highs Sunday to the upper 50s to the 60s (10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages). Tonight`s lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: An amplified pattern is expected for the beginning of the long-term as longwave troughing across the Midwest quickly shifts east as a ridge of high pressure tracks closely behind. Pressure rises will bring about warmer and dryer weather resulting in little to no precipitation chances until Wednesday. A wave of energy is expected to pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with its associated surface low north of Lake Superior. With a cold frontal passage expected to pass through the region Wednesday, this setup could bring about some showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two. As the ridge tracks eastward, a more progressive zonal pattern sets up for the rest of the week. With this, the chance for some convective activity still exists as waves track just north of the Mitt- Stay tuned! PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: Temperatures: As pressure rises in response to a ridge overhead, clouds will decrease in coverage leading to a steeper diurnal curve from daytime highs and nighttime lows. By Tuesday temperatures will be in the 70s and will continue to increase through the week with most areas forecasted to be in the upper 70s/80s by Thursday. Nighttime lows will also slowly increase with the temperatures, but will still be generally 20 to 30 degrees cooler then daytime highs. Sunday and Monday night look to be the coolest nights on tap with lows in the upper 30s/ low 40s, especially Monday night. No frost is expected at this time, but it cannot be ruled out just yet. Precipitation Chances: An advancing wave and associated low pressure and cold front boundary are expected to track through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. There are some signals that severe weather could be possible, but signals are weak for this possibility. The most likely scenario to help initiate things, would be for the front to pass through the region later in the day Wednesday to provide more time for instability to build from diurnal heating. Guidance continues to struggle with the rest of the week in regards to exact timing of next precipitation chances, but it is looking to be unsettled as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Low pressure centered along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border will push eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile...another upper level trough axis will swing thru the Western Great Lakes region later tonight into Sunday... maintaining low VFR/MVFR cigs and small chances of showers for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will remain W/SW AOB 10 kts overnight...shifting to the NW and strengthening to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts on Sunday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MLR