Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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392 FXUS63 KAPX 070345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and Friday. - Showers remain possible Saturday and Sunday. - Warmer and quieter weather Monday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1027 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Deep troughing across the Great Lakes region continues to produce scattered showers and cool temps across Northern Michigan late this evening. All thunder has ended with loss of diurnal instability...and have removed mention of thunder for the remainder of the night based on latest near term model and radar trends. Will likely see another boost in shower activity overnight as a short wave rides thru Northern Michigan. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows a broad pressure gradient across the Great Lakes south of a 991mb low over far northwest Ontario...and in the wake of a cold front now east of the Great Lakes and moving into New England and the Mid Atlantic. Also a broad upper level circulation near the western shore of Lake Superior with a negatively tilted trough axis extending across the Great Lakes. Several embedded disturbances within this circulation... one moving through central Upper at mid afternoon is the one of most near term interest. This feature has a broken area of showers and some thunderstorms across much of Lake Superior/Upper Michigan/northern Wisconsin. A few spottier showers popped up across northern Lower inland from westerly flow off Lake Michigan. Deep layer cyclonic flow and thermal troughing will persist across the forecast area through Friday..along with deep moisture circulating back across the northern half of the state though drier air trying to edge its way into southern Lower Michigan. Primary Forecast Concerns: Showers tonight...and Friday as well: Vorticity center spinning across northern Michigan will keep showers going into this evening though coverage may diminish with loss of heating. Deep layer moisture lingers overnight into Friday...will keep skies mainly on the cloudy side and periodic showers to continue. The exception may be over the southwest quarter of the forecast area (TVC/CAD and west) where cloud cover may thin out during the afternoon. Below normal temperatures Friday: Normal highs for tomorrow are in the 70-75 degree range...but cloud cover and overall cool air mass will keep temperatures in the 50s for most of the day Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Midlevel closed low pressure currently over the Ontario/Manitoba boarder with attached shortwave troughing will continue to drive chances of precipitation across the upper Great Lakes region for the next few days. A strong jet maxima riding along the southern end of the aformentioned trough will continue to allow a cooler Canadian air mass to push its way into Michigan leaving the CWA with cooler than average surface temperatures. The core of the low will slowly progress center itself just north of Lake Ontario and the core of the jet will settle over Michigan`s lower peninsula at the start of the long term. A wet and unsettled pattern will remain in place this Saturday and perhaps into Sunday before midlevel ridging builds across the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Continued showers remain possible across the CWA this Saturday and Sunday: Precipitation is expected to continue this weekend as the core of the midlevel low will support scattered showers to linger across the CWA (especially for the U.P and the straits). Dynamics associated with the aformentioned jet core will aid with additional showers over the central and northern lower region. The biggest uncertainty with showers on Sunday as upstream ridging eventually pushes to trough eastward and builds midlevel heights. Rainfall amounts will be very low as QPF ensembles remain around a general tenth or so of measurable liquid. Surface high pressure builds a warmer and quieter weather pattern Monday and Tuesday: Aformentioned midlevel ridging over the Northern Pacific will make its way to the upper Midwest and return quiet weather to the CWA by the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Temperatures will return to climatological normal for mid June. Long range guidance is hinting at the return of showers and Storms later next week but still too early to message potential impacts. As of now, no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Deep upper level troughing/convergence combined with ample low level moisture will continue to generate sct/nmrs showers overnight into Friday across much of Michigan. Prevailing conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR. Surface winds will remain from the W/NW at 10 to 20 kts thru Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MLR