064
FXUS63 KAPX 112300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers possible tonight.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Marginal
risk for severe storm development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level ridge axis currently in place
from the mid-MS Valley northeast through the Great Lakes into
northern Ontario and Quebec. Upstream troughing evident over the
upper MS Valley with closed upper-level low pressure over Manitoba.
Attendant surface low just east of the upper wave...centered near
the Manitoba/Ontario border with a cold front draped across MN into
western IA/NE. Low pressure continues to drift east to near Hudson
Bay by Wednesday morning with that upstream frontal boundary losing
steam as it approaches the western Great Lakes tonight.

Forecast Details: Lots of sun across northern Michigan early this
afternoon, gradually becoming more filtered with time as high clouds
steadily increase from west to east. While clouds thicken/lower with
time through the evening, shower chances remain much more uncertain
given a loss of appreciable forcing as the primary mid-level support
outruns the surface boundary with that boundary essentially washing
out overhead by early Wednesday. None the less, isolated to
scattered light rain showers remain a possibility across the
forecast area -- initially as early as 00-03z across western areas
and after 03z as you head east of Interstate 75. Certainly not much
in the way of QPF anticipated with trends really favoring much of
the forecast area remaining dry.

Partly to mostly sunny skies return for Wednesday with just some
daytime cu expected to dot the map. High temperatures continue to
rebound as mid-upper level heights build and low-level southerly
winds aid to boost temps back into the 80s for much of northern
lower. Cooler readings in the 70s near the immediate coasts and
across the eastern U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Finally headed into a more summer like pattern as we get closer to
the summer solstice (June 20th). Seasonable temperatures over the
next few days will likely be followed by a more pronounced warmup
late this weekend into next week.

Details:

First order of business is the details of a trough/frontal passage
Thursday. The trough will be centered to our north and it will drag
a surface cold front across the region at some point on Thursday.
The exact timing remains uncertain with guidance continuing to vary.
An earlier passage (morning) would limit instability while a later
passage (midday or afternoon) would allow for more instability to
build and be more favorable for the generation of possible strong to
severe storms. At this point the most favorable spot for better
storms would appear to be across northeast lower. Moisture surges
north out ahead of the front with surface dewpoints increasing into
the low 60s and pw values (precipitable water) of 1 to 1.5 inches
which could result in locally heavy downpours. In addition, decent
wind fields (0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots) brings a damaging
wind gust threat. Slowly building heights are then expected to lead
to uneventful weather conditions Friday into at least Sunday
morning. MCS`s (mesoscale convective system) may top the ridge and
lead to showers and storms at any point from later Sunday into early
next week. Temperatures look rather toasty with uncomfortably high
humidity levels starting Sunday on through the remainder of the long
term. Of course any convection could limit how warm it actually gets
but there is potential for highs of well into the 80s to the mid 90s
as 850 mb temperatures possibly surge to around 20C or slightly
higher (ECMWF remains more bullish in this regard than the GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A warm front will slide thru Michigan tonight...generating a
narrow area of light showers along and ahead of it. Prevailing
conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours despite
increasing clouds and lowering cigs tonight. Light southerly
winds tonight will shift slightly to the SW at around 10 kts on
Wednesday.

New obs from APN are not available within the system or via the
APN phone line at this time. Thus...no amendments will be
available for APN until further notice. "AMD NOT SKED" has been
added to the end of this TAF.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR