541
FNUS53 KAPX 192115
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Chances for Showers and Storms At Times...

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will continue track through the region this evening
through tonight. Winds will decrease and shift to the north/
northeast this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
tonight, capable of producing heavy downpours and frequent
lightning as clouds begin to build in through the night.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday with highs in the 70s for
most areas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the end of the week before widespread rain chances look to
return Saturday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 2400,
                    then isolated rain showers.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (93).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.18 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 1200,
                    then isolated rain showers.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 2 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (153).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (223).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.37 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (84).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.24 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Isolated rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (136).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.26 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (134).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.12 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (185).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the north around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.50 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (153).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.30 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (238).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the west around 9
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.25 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.28 in .

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (162).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.18 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (226).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.21 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

NSC