Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
707
FNUS53 KAPX 220916
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
...Increasing shower chances today and tonight...
.DISCUSSION...A cold front will cross northern Michigan this
afternoon and evening. Some light rain showers are possible this
morning, mainly in northwest lower Michigan. A band of more
substantial showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will slowly cross
the area from west to east beginning around midday. Much of
northwest lower Michigan will pick up from half an inch to an inch
of rain today. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lower
elsewhere. Temperatures today will be cooler, and humidity values
higher, than yesterday. Monday will be sunnier but a bit cooler
again. Winds will start today southerly and light, becoming
northwest to north late today, and breezy tonight and Monday.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-222200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 1200. Scattered
thunderstorms. Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 62-67 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (212).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.70 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Numerous rain
showers and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
then scattered rain showers.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.21 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 17 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (378).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
1200. Numerous rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
the coast.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 16 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (243).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.27 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms until 2400, then
scattered rain showers.
Min Temperature.....48-53...except 56-61 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (107).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.54 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (424).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
$$
MIZ020-025>027-222200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 1200. Scattered
thunderstorms. Numerous rain showers after
1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 61-66 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the northwest
around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.22- 0.70 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated
thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48...except 56-61 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler...except 13 degrees cooler
near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (94).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.24 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 57-62 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (429).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ031>033-222200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers until 1200. Scattered thunderstorms.
Rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 64-69 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......29 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the north
in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (177).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west in the
afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.76 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated
thunderstorms until 2400. Scattered rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 49-54 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (86).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.28 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (433).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
516 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (291).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.32 in.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous rain
showers and scattered thunderstorms until 2400,
then scattered rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (84).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.61 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (444).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
$$
.EXTENDED...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
JZ