740
FXUS63 KARX 090354
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1054 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler to end the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to mid
  70s.

- Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday.

- Warming trend for the second half of next week with
  temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching the mid
  70 to mid 80s for much of the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and storms from the morning have continued to push off to
the east this early afternoon. Behind this, satellite imagery shows
cumulus developing across the region with a bit perkier cu
developing across northern Wisconsin/U.P. Radar mosaic shows showers
and even a few storms developing in this area, which a few of the hi-
res models were picking up on earlier with building instability and
steep low level lapse rates. Have maintained some small shower and
isolated storm chances mainly to the north across north-central WI
into the evening before drier conditions return overnight.

Otherwise, highs remaining a tad bit cooler in the upper 60s to mid
70s to end the weekend. The area remains under broad cyclonic flow
aloft into Sunday with various shortwaves passing through. Moisture
increases slightly Sunday, but latest hi-res model guidance does not
appear to be too excited in bringing in much for precipitation
chances. Will not completely rule out a few diurnally driven
showers, especially if we are able to get a bit more instability
than models are currently suggesting. For now have not made any
significant changes to the ongoing forecast which leans a bit drier,
but will need to continue to monitor for any updates/increase in
shower/storm chances that may be needed Sunday.

Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday. Warming trend for
Tuesday onward next week with temperatures trending above
normal;highs reaching the mid 70 to mid 80s for much of the
local area:

Forecast soundings show drying later Sunday night through Monday
night, however rain chances increase again Tuesday morning.  Will
need to assess valley fog chances Monday morning with winds
decreasing winds and moisture in the boundary layer. Moisture
transport increases across the Plains Monday Night as a 500mb
trough tracks across Manitoba/Northern Plains. Moisture
transport continues eastward across the forecast area during the
day. Southwest surface winds increase with a warm front lifting
north and ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Instability appears limited with the initial
showers/storms and about 25 to 35kts of deep layer shear. During
the afternoon MLCAPE is progged to increase 250 to 1500J/kg
with 0-1km shear of 10 to 30kts and deep layer shear of 40 to
50kts. We`ll need to look closer at the severe weather potential
as we get closer to Tuesday due to the potential for increasing
instability/shear with the cold front pushing through.

Ridging tries to re-develop for Wednesday, however another ripple in
the flow could produce a few showers or storms.  The timing is still
somewhere between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night and could
last into Thursday.  In addition, a wave to the north Thursday night
could bring isolated rain chances into the area.  Again, a ridge
builds in for Friday behind this wave. Beyond this period,
there is low confidence due to large differences in the synoptic
pattern.

Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures from the 70s to the mid
80s are forecast through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upstream showers moving southeast from west-central Wisconsin
will be near term forecast discrepancy, potentially providing
VCSH at KLSE near 09.06Z TAF issuance. Flight restrictions
remain nil regardless with 10,000 ft cigs. Increased winds will
be subsequent forecast impact Sunday. Tightened surface
pressure gradient and weak cold air advection will be primary
forcing mechanisms aided by diurnal heating. Have kept
increased winds at KRST into the nighttime hours with current
timing of dry frontal passage. Will be subsequent forecast
detail to iron out as loss of diurnal heating and the narrow
area of higher winds will provide a rapid decrease.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS/Zapotocny
AVIATION...JAR