141
AXNT20 KNHC 160933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is centered over northern Central
America and southern Mexico. This weather pattern is known as a
Central American Gyre (CAG), and often persists for several days
resulting in life- threatening conditions that include flooding
and mudslides. With the current CAG, the circulation is producing
strong SW monsoonal flow in the eastern north Pacific that will
advect abundant tropical moisture northward into the coastal
terrain of Central America and southern Mexico. The pattern is
expected to persist through at least the middle of this week
across northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the
threat to life and property increasing as the event persists. The
main areas impacted by the heavy rainfall will be northwest
Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, northwest Nicaragua, and coastal
sections of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Mexican
state of Chiapas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across Quintana
Roo, Yucatn, Tabasco, Veracruz, NE Queretero, NE Hidalgo, and
San Luis Potosi this week.

The persistence of the moist pattern will create very hazardous
conditions in the region that could be life-threatening. Please
refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more
detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, from
15N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderated convection is from 07N to 09N within 60 nm of the wave
axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 54W,
extending from 17N southward. It is moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 50W and
54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters passes off the coast of Africa near
13N17W to 06N31W. The ITCZ continues from 06N31W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
29W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
possibility of heavy rainfall across Quintana Roo, Yucatn,
Tabasco, Veracruz, and San Luis Potosi this week.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. A surface trough extends from 26N91W to
just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted S of 25N and E of 91W, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range E of 90W, and 2-4 ft W of
90W.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a
tropical cyclone to develop from this broad area of low pressure,
and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf
during the middle part of this week, then move west or west-
northwestward. Active convection across the southeast Gulf, along
with increasing winds and building seas, is expected to shift
westward with this system into the middle part of the week,
impacting the south-central and northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall across Quintana Roo and Yucatn this
week.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. The circulation around the gyre is supporting
fresh to strong SE winds over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
NW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere except the far NE Caribbean
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the Gulf of
Mexico. The resultant pattern will produce fresh to strong SE
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the western and northwestern Caribbean today, then shift across
the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N70W to central Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist east of the trough. A
second trough extends from 30N62W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm east of this trough N of 25N. To the east of 55W,
high pressure prevails. Light to gentle winds generally prevail W
of 55W, with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds prevail, with seas in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough NE of the Bahamas will
shift eastward and exit the region through early this week, with
active convection continuing ahead of it. Expect fresh E winds
north of 26N and west of 65W by Tue, as high pressure builds north
of the area behind the exiting trough. Low pressure is forecast
to develop a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas by
midweek. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some
development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or
west- northwestward.

$$
AL