639
AXNT20 KNHC 202227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of Alberto is centered near 22.3N 102.0W at 20/2100 UTC
or 230 nm W of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The remnants are expected to
continue moving W through tonight. Scattered moderate convection
continues across the Bay of Campeche but most of the heavy
rainfall associated with the Alberto Remnants is occurring over
Mexico and Texas. Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue
to diminish across southern Texas tonight, with additional
rainfall totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will
continue to impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of
5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches
are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of
Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Water levels remain
elevated along the Texas coast but will begin to subside through
tonight. Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92):
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern
coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday
morning, if necessary.This system has a medium change of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

PLease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure north of the Azores
will shift southeastward through late Fri. A tightening of the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in West Africa will support gale-force (Force 8 on the
Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of
AGADIR from June 20/18Z to at least June 21/12Z according to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning issued at 1845 UTC today. Expect
rough seas with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France for more details at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 14N between 31W
and 34W.

The axis of another tropical wave is near 47W from 16N southward,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.

The third tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis is near 62W from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
wave axis from 09N to 12N between 60W and 63W, including over
northeast Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 09N31W to 10N35W to
08N46W to 08N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 11N between 21W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the
Remnants of Alberto.

Aside from impacts discussed above, a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure centered N of Bermuda near 37N65W and the Remnants
of Alberto is supporting strong to near gale- force E to SE winds
over the Gulf waters west of 87W, with fresh to locally strong E
winds east of 87W. Latest buoy observations show seas in the
range of 8 to 12 ft north 20N and west of 90W. Seas are generally
5 to 8 ft E of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. Bands of showers
with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the western Gulf mainly
S of 23N and W of 90W. Convection is on increase over the SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, Remnants Of Alberto are near 22.3N 102.0W at 5
PM EDT, and are moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Alberto will dissipate Fri morning. A broad area of low
pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern
Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the
Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Earlier satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft
range. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the NW Caribbean W
of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are
noted within the latter winds. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail, except over the SW
Caribbean where winds are mainly gentle with seas in the 2 to 4
ft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed
over the Caribbean waters W of 70W, more concentrated in the Gulf
of Honduras, including Belize and northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force SE winds and rough seas
over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
and moderate seas on Sat morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh E
to SE winds will prevail through Mon night, except for pulsing
strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night
over the south-central basin through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
AL92.

The pressure gradient between the Invest Area 92 and a 1029 mb
high pressure located N of Bermuda is producing an area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the low center and W of 74W. Seas
of 8 to 11 ft are noted within these winds. A stationary front
extends 31N46W to 27N59W to 30N70W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of the front and mainly N of 25N between 42W and 56W.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W where
seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds,
and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere, except reaching strong
speeds off the coast of Africa N of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will prevail across
the waters N of 28N through early Fri. Afterward, high pressure
will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate
winds through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are
forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the
Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank this evening through
Sat night.

$$
AReinhart