685
AXNT20 KNHC 231647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1647 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Data from an Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of
low pressure centered about 40 miles southeast of La Pesca,
Mexico does not have a well-defined center of circulation.  Some
slight development of this system is still possible, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast
of northeastern Mexico by this evening. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized
flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South
Texas through tonight. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis along 21W, south of 14N,
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
between the wave`s axis and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis along 42W, south of 13N,
is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
depicted associated with this wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is depicted from 06N to 10N along the waves axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the storm
activity south of 13N and over central Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing convective
activity S of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from
08N25W to 0N52.5W. Aside from convection described above in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-34W and 44W-51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL93 centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico along with a 1017 mb high
pressure near 29N89W. Outside of the influence of Invest AL93,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent. An area of moderate convection is depicted north of
the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Gulf. While generally
dry conditions are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, a 1006 mb low pressure across the W Gulf this
morning, centered near 23N97W, will move W-NW and inland early
this evening and dissipate by Mon morning, with marine
conditions quickly improving across the western Gulf. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail E of 90W and will
diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas tonight and to
light to gentle speeds through Wed. Weak high pressure will
reside over the E central Gulf Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and nearby waters. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere
in the basin. A 1022 mb high pressure system centered near
42N45W forces fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest
seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the W Atlantic ridge extends along 33N to
offshore of the SE U.S. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas
are expected to prevail across the western basin through the
week, except for winds pulsing to strong speeds at night in the
Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue,
pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south-
central basin. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical
wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An extensive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. Upper level divergence is
producing moderate scattered convection between the western
Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N72W to
26N74W, producing scattered moderate convection along the trough
axis. Another surface trough is analyzed between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico and moderate convection is evident near the trough
axis. Another area of upper level divergence is generating
scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N between 43W to
48W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
in western Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally
strong NE-E winds south of a line from 22N34W to 18N51W. Seas in
these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. In the rest of the
tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward
along 33N to offshore of the SE U.S. coast. Fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N
and W of 75W through Mon as low pressure across the SE U.S.
moves northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally
prevail elsewhere across the region through tonight. High
pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW Bahamas
tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds
and seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles Mon through midday Tue associated with a tropical wave.

$$
KRV