549
AXNT20 KNHC 242124
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean: Satellite imagery
shows that a weak area of low pressure has formed several hundred
miles southwest of Bermuda near 25.5N70W. This system is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight
subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next
couple of days while the system moves generally northeastward.
Aloft, a deep-layered trough extends southwestward from 30N73W
across eastern Cuba and into the SW Caribbean Sea limiting the
tropical development in the area. A band of moisture will persist
ahead of the trough axis over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
US/UK Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rain may occur over these
locations through the upcoming weekend, particularly over
Hispaniola. Residents in the above locations should remain alert
for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please
refer to your local weather office for more specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season has its axis along 55W
from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave
axis S of 10N. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts
of French Guiana and Suriname. Latest sccatterometer pass
captured the wind shift associated with the wave axis. The wave
will cross the Windward Island on Sat. Gusty winds and active
weather are expected with the wave.

Of note: On average, about 60 waves are generated over North Africa
each year, but it appears that the number that is formed has no
relationship to how much tropical cyclone activity there is over
the Atlantic each year. While only 60% of the Atlantic tropical
storms and minor hurricanes originate from easterly waves, nearly
85% of the intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as
easterly waves.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W, then continues
SW to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to near the Brazil/
French Guiana border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02N to 05N between 40W and 40W, and from 02N
to 10N between 47W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh SE
winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft,
and gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern half of it with
seas of 1 to 3 ft. The latest surface observations confirm reduced
visibilities and hazy conditions across the western Gulf, due to
smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. In addition,
visible satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of the
smoke extending northward from the Bay of Campeche creating hazy
conditions.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to
shift east-southeastward starting Sun. Moderate to fresh winds
over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the
esatern Gulf are expected to continue through the weekend, except
for winds becoming light and variable over most of the eastern
Gulf through early next week. A cold front will move across the
NE Gulf from late Tue through Wed night, followed by gentle to
moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the
late afternoons and at night through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Scattered showers are isolated thunderstorms are noted over parts
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Convection has also flared-up
over northern Colombia and western Venezuela. A convergent pattern
aloft supports this convective activuity. Recent satellite
scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E to SE winds in
the Gulf of Honduras, where smoke from agricultural fires in
Honduras continues to reduce visibilities to 3 nm. Please exercise
caution in areas of dense smoke. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades
are noted across the basin, with the exception of moderate winds
over the far SE Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the strong deep-layer ridge axis across the
Caribbean from eastern Cuba to northern Costa Rica will lift NE
through late Sat. This feature will continue to support active
weather across the central portions of the basin, which will
gradually shift NE and into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad
and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean
through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions
and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke
due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across
the Gulf of Honduras today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The deep-layered wave responsible for light to heavy rainfall across
Hispaniola continues to move north and east away from the
Greater Antilles. At the surface, 1013 mb low pressure is
centered near 23N72W, along a surface trough extending from
28N66W to the low to central Hispaniola. Scattered moderate
convection is from 20N to 28N between 62W and 72W. Fresh to
strong winds are along the trough, with 5-7 ft seas from 21N to
28N between 63W and 71W. Elsewhere, 1022 mb high pressure is
just northwest of the Canary Islands, providing for moderate to
locally fresh trades across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in open
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, another low is expected to form
along the aforementioned surface trough about halfway between
Bermuda and Hispaniola today. Although environmental conditions
are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development
is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves
northeastward. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between
Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low
pressure. Looking ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible
north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to
move off the southeast U.S. coast by mid-week.

$$
GR