463
AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Alberto: The first tropical storm of the 2024
Hurricane Season, named Alberto, forms over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Alberto is centered near 22.2N 95.1W at 19/1800 UTC or
160 nm E of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto
will reach the coast of northeastern Mexico early Thursday
morning. Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight
before the center of Alberto reaches land. Rapid weakening is
expected once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to
dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night. Deep convection
has formed near the center of Alberto, and a well defined band of
moderate to strong convection is within about 200 nm to the
southeast of the center.

Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of
5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum
totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of
the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This
rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding
along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also
possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The deepest water will
occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the
landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. Storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds
north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells
generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and
northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W/23W
from 05N to 18N. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 12N within 180 nm east
of the wave axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W/39W from
03N to 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 03N to
07N between 34W and 42W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W/54W south of
16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave originated in the
midlatitude and moved southward to become embedded within the
tradewind easterlies. As typical for these tropical waves that
originate in the midlatitude, it is embedded within dry air so
there is no significant convection noted at this time.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south
of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted over the Caribbean waters in association with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to 09N40W
to 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 10N and 14N ,
and from 03N to 10N between 22N and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Alberto and its impacts. Alberto is the main
feature over the basin.

Aside from impacts discussed above, strong to near-gale force
winds cover much of the waters W of 87W, with fresh to strong
winds E of 87W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8 to 13 ft
are noted N of 22N and W of 87W. Seas in the 5 to 8 ft range are
S of 22N and W of 87W, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 8 to
10 ft dominate the waters E of 87W.

For the forecast, Alberto will move to 22.2N 96.4W this evening,
inland to 22.3N 98.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near
22.4N 101.2W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Another broad
area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system through
early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The circulation around Tropical Storm Alberto combined with a
ridge that dominates Florida and Cuba supports fresh to strong
southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean, west of 83W where
seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are
seen E of 78W based on recent scatterometer data while gentle to
moderate easterly winds are blowing elsewhere. Seas are generally
3 to 5 ft across much of the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over parts of Cuba and surrounding
waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed over the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 13N between 76W
and 83W. This convective activity is reaching the coast of western
Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas over
the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
moderate seas during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Sat, pulsing to strong speeds over the south-central
basin tonight through Fri night. Winds across these two regions
will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N68W to a 1012 mb low pressure
located near 26N70W to 22N71W. Scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of the trough. A stationary
front enters the forecast waters near 31N52W and extends westward
along 29N60W to near 29N68W. The pressure gradient between these
features and a ridge to the N is producing fresh to strong NE
winds N of a line from 30N60W to the NW Bahamas. Seas of 8 to 10
ft are noted within these winds. Elsewhere N of 20N, winds are
mainly gentle to moderate, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are observed across the tropical Atlantic with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. The main exception is in the vicinity of the
tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, where fresh to locally
strong winds, and seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail. Meteo France is
forecasting near gale force winds in the forecast region of
Agadir, along the coast, soon.

For the forecast west of 55W, environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for some gradual development of the system
mentioned above during the next few days while it moves westward
or west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the
coast of the southeastern United States by the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas up to 12 ft will prevail across the waters N of
26N through Thu. High pres N of the area and associated ridging
will dominate the region afterwards, supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds the remainder forecast period.

$$
GR