555
AXNT20 KNHC 221702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1636 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) is gradually developing over
Central America with a broad 1008 mb low pressure near
Nicaragua. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
encompasses much of the W Caribbean Sea in association with this
low. The low is forecast to drift northwestward across northern
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through the middle of next week. Aided by abundant tropical
moisture, this system may produce significant rainfall over
Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua through Tuesday. Heavy rain
will likely spread over central and northern Guatemala, western
Honduras, Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Sunday
evening through Thursday. This will lead to an increased
potential for life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides in
these areas. In addition, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely for form as the
system moves slowly north across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay
alert on the latest information from their local meteorological
agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for
the Eastern Pacific at website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across El
Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been analyzed along 42W from 04N to 17N.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13N to 20N
between the wave axis and 45.5W.

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and
is analyzed along 17.5W from 06.5N to 19N. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is depicted from 10N to 18N between
the west coast of Africa and 22W. As this waves moves westward
during the next several days, environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle to latter part of the
week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic. This wave has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then extends
southwestward across 10N24W to 07N36W. An ITCZ curves
northwestward from 07N36W to 08N40W and from 11N48W to 11N55W.
No significant convection is depicted in associated with the
monsoon trough or the ITCZ at this time.

See Special Features section above for information on a low
pressure center along the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon
trough and its associated convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on developing
low pressure over the NW Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central
America that may impact portions of Gulf of Mexico later this
week.

Weak high pressure dominates, aside from a surface trough that
has moved W offshore the Yucatan this morning. Dry conditions
prevail with light to gentle E winds and seas of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is over the NW
Caribbean Sea and adjacent parts of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next several days. A
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf
of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE
Gulf early this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for potential
heavy rainfall associated with a developing Central American
Gyre (CAG) over the western Caribbean.

A deep layer trough is producing widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection over the central Caribbean. Recent
scatterometer pass revealed near-gale to gale force winds within
the strongest convection particularly east of Jamaica. Outside
of convection, mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4
ft are noted at the southeastern basin. While, mainly gentle E
to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected across the E and central Caribbean today. A
broad area of low pressure over the W Caribbean Sea and adjacent
parts of Central America is supporting scattered to locally
numerous  showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean.
Winds and seas may be locally higher in the showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf
of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low pressure (AL96) centered near 28N56W is producing
scattered moderate convection along with fresh winds and seas to
7 ft from 26N to 30N between 52W and 57W. Although the low
remains embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived
tropical depression cannot be ruled out if showers and
thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves
generally northward at 5 to 10 kt over the central subtropical
Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical formation
through the next 48 hours.

Farther E, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are centered
near 29N43.5W, with 1008 mb. This low is no longer producing
convection, but a broad area of fresh SE to S winds and seas of
7 to 9 ft extend N of 26N between 37W and 43W.

A weak surface trough stretches from N of 31N70W to 29N74W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted 120 nm south of this
trough axis, and moderate N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted N of 29N between 68W and 75W.

For the remainder of the basin, weak high pressure is leading to
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, except from 19N to
28N west of 26W, where moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, an area of low pressure centered near
27N56W is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Although environmental conditions are not very favorable for
development, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled
out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while
the system moves generally northward over the central
subtropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical
formation over the next 48 hours. Otherwise, a weak cold front
will move off the SE coast of the US this afternoon, then slowly
move across the waters N of 25N through Mon night.

$$
KRV