197
AXNT20 KNHC 190446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. No deep convection is noted near the
trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. The storm activity near the wave has
decreased during the past few hours. Only a few showers are
evident near the trough axis on recent satellite imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 10N30W and
then to 15N42W. No significant convection is observed near this
boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft and a moist atmosphere continues to support a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf of Mexico. A
few showers are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche
associated with weakening storms that developed earlier this
evening in western Yucatan. A dry continental airmass dominates
the rest of the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A weak pressure pattern persists across the Gulf,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will
support gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and slight
seas through the upcoming weekend. Moderate winds may pulse in
the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several
days. A cold front is forecast to clip the far NE waters Thu
into Fri with little change in winds and seas. Winds may
increase across the SE Gulf by Mon as a low pressure forms over
the NW Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp mid to upper level trough off the SE United States
and abundant moisture continue to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and the surrounding waters. In
the SE Caribbean, a surface trough is producing a few weak
showers that are also affecting the Windward Islands.

High pressure located north of the Greater Antilles forces
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off northern
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across
the E and central Caribbean, and light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the
basin through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle of next
week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next
seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A non-tropical 1007 mb low pressure system is near 26N53W in the
north-central Atlantic. A dissipating cold front extends south of
the low to 23N60W, followed by a stationary front to 31N65W. A
stationary front extends from the low center to 25N41W. The low
pressure is producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of 25N and between 50W and 59W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to moderate easterly winds in the
area described and gusts to near gale-force associated with the
strongest storms. Seas in these waters are 9-12 ft. The remnants
of Gordon are located near 23N47W and scattered showers are
observed north of 21N and between 37W and 49W. Fresh to locally
strong winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present in the area described.

In the SW North Atlantic, a sharp trough off the SE United States
continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly west of 77W. Mariners encountering these storms can expect
gusty winds and suddenly higher seas. Elsewhere in the tropical
Atlantic, the pressure gradient is generally weak, sustaining
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, A non-tropical low pressure system
located just E of the forecast area near 26N53W is producing
fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the NE waters, mainly
N of 25N and E of 60W. These marine conditions will persist
tonight and Thu, and gradually diminish on Fri. Expect pulsing
fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through tonight.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
Delgado