754
AXNT20 KNHC 152245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly downgraded Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near
19.2N 46.1W at 15/2100 UTC or 970 nm E of the Northern Leeward
Islands, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. The 12 ft seas extend 60 nm in the northern semicircle with
peak seas near 15 ft. Scattered showers are near the center of
Gordon. Gordon will move W to WSW over the next few days, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of
the week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
few days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to
19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Convection near this wave is
associated with the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 20N
southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across Hispaniola.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W extending
from 20N to inland Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave,
likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon
trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and
continues southwestward to near 10N39W, and then resumes near
13N53W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 15N from 53W eastward.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 11N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 12N between 73W and 83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring off
the coast of the northern Gulf from 91W through coastal Florida.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much
of the upcoming week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse
in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in
central portions of the basin from 17N to the coasts of Jamaica
and Cuba between 75W and 85W. Otherwise, a relatively fair and
modest trade- wind pattern continues across much of the basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted via earlier
scatterometer data in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4
to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate E trade winds along with slight seas
are over the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle NE to SE winds
and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will prevail in
the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, pulsing to
strong speeds in the south-central waters tonight through Tue.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse off the coast of
Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate
trades are expected elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will
continue across the waters the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.

A stationary front extends southwestward to the central coast of
Florida. Farther east, a stationary front extends eastward from
31N72W to 31N56W. An area of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms is occurring across areas north of 21N between 50W
and the east coast of Florida, including the central and northern
Bahamas. This convection is located south of the stationary
front. Near and immediately south of the front, moderate to fresh
W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of 6 to 11 ft. Near
and immediately north of the front, fresh to near gale force NE
winds and seas 12 ft and higher are occurring. Winds and seas were
confirmed via recent scatterometer and altimeter data.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin away from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned
areas of convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle
to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring
across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to
gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are analyzed. From the
Equator to 10N and east of 45W, moderate to fresh S to SE winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect increasing winds and
building seas across the waters north of 29N over the next couple
of days. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by
midweek north of 25N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

$$
AReinhart